Tag Archives: SP500 Trading Strategy

Emini Futures Trading Update- 03Jan2017

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2242. The futures lost 20 points from day high of 2059 to make day low of 2039.

Trade#1 of Jan 2017 has hit stop loss at 2248. This is our 3rd stop loss of 6 points in this zone of 2250, including the two stops we had in December month So we will have to wait for 2250 to be crossed or broken decisively. All these stop losses will be recovered in one good trade of 20-25 points.

I am looking at 2260 on the S&P500 index. There is a clear long trade above this level. The index went till 2263 today but failed to hold and a 20 point sell off followed. We will get back into the market in a day or two once direction become clear again. There will be tactical trades along the way. The zone for short trades is from below 2240 as mentioned in previous mail today. The futures have bounced back from 2240 multiple times, so we have to see if this level holds.

Traders with 1-2 contracts: There is no immediate trade. Please wait for the next trade specifically for you.

Traders with 5-10 contracts: Here is another tactical trade for you. You can Buy 1-2 contracts at/above 2242 for Target 2252 with Stop 2238. [Update: This tactical trade of 10 points was successfully completely today itself by end of day]

Please Note: The broad view for this month is to be long above 2250 and short below 2240. We will try to create trades using this view. 2252 is acting a key resistance in futures, and 2238 is acting as support.

Background Notes: Jan has been a tough month for markets last 3 years, with S&P500 losing at least 3 percent in Jan 2014, 2015, 2016. Jan is difficult because large investors will do portfolio adjustments and if previous months were good, there is a tendency to become conservative and go into liquid funds. We traders need to be very cautious in Jan. All the best!

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 26Dec2016

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Hello Folks, hope you had a good Xmas weekend.
The Emini futures are currently at 2260. The volumes have been very low, so we will have to see where the direction is with volume pick up. The long trade is still on. A retest of 2070-2080 level is possible this week. 2248-2250 should be the absolute stop loss on long trades. Below 2240, the S&P500 will face high selling pressure and we can see 2200 within a few sessions. Short positions can be taken between 2245 and 2215. In summary, our S&P500 futures strategy is to remain long above 2050 and go short below 2250.

spx500-emini-futures-daily-chart-2260-26dec2016

Please Note: If Trump fails to deliver on the promises, then this Trump rally will unwind over the next 6-12 months and we will see 2080 again, which is nearly 200 points correction from current level. Experience says hope rallies often get tested again and again, so we are likely to see 2180-2200 again in 2017. Traders should keep taking profits regularly. All the best!

Emini Futures Trading Analysis – 21Oct2016

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sp500-emini-futures-daily-chart-analysis-21oct2016

The above chart clearly shows a strong support zone between 2100-2120 for the S&P500 futures. They have bounced back from this support zone twice in recent days, so we can expect an upmove of 40-50 points from the support zone of 2100-2120 before any fresh selling pressure gets applied by the short sellers. So potential upside target is 2150-2160. We can be sure that there short sellers because many fund managers will try to hedge their equity portfolios by shorting the S&P500 Futures. And then there will be some naked short sellers who are convinced of lower targets after US Elections in November 2016. Therefore, we have to book trading profits in the 2150-2160 range without becoming greedy. A real long trade with high conviction can start only above 2200, which will then involve massive short covering and immediate target in that case would be 2240. We will discuss that trade when we get there. There are many roadblocks before that, because the daily charts are showing that medium-term market trend is down until 2180 is crossed. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Update- 02Sep2016

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Following is an email sent to our subscribers on Sep 02, 2016 afternoon.

Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures closed at 2178.50.
Today’s range was: 2164.50 – 2183.75
Our target of 2173 was hit in the morning itself. In fact, the futures opened at 2176, so those traders who placed orders at market open would have got 2176-2180 as their selling price. Those traders who kept the orders in the system during pre-market hours would have got 2173 before market open. So we have got between 2173 and 2180 on different contracts based when they were placed for sale.

So our Trade#1 of Sep 2016 is completed successfully with 14 points gain. That’s a great start for Sep 2016. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Update – 31Aug2016

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sp500-emini-futures-daily-chart-31aug2016

The S&P500 Emini futures closed at 2169.50 while the S&P 500 index closed at 2170.95. The futures discount has narrowed a lot in recent days to just about 2 points from about 9 points a month back. As indicated in the above chart, 2140 is strong support because 2134 was the previous high and now it is the base.

Our analysis is that S&P 500 index will test 2200 once and any major fall can happen after that or on the very same day that 2200 is tested.So the trading strategy is to remain long, and buy the dips and sell at 10-15-20 points gain.

So here’s a bonus trade for all website visitors:
We can buy Emini futures at 2163 for 2197 target with 2150 stop.