Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 08Sep2017

spx-500-futures-daily-chart-analysis-08sep2017

The S&P500 Emini Futures are currently at 2463. The futures have been testing various support levels like 2410-2420 to 2440-2450 over the last 2 months, and they are preparing for a fresh attempt to cross 2480. Previous attempt failed and the futures fell nearly 70 points from 2488 till 2420. So the futures are taking their time in testing all support levels in order to launch a fresh attempt to cross 2480 and go towards 2500.

There is a solid resistance/ selling pressure at 2480-2483 level, and it will need a strong push to cross it. There can be no room for selling pressure around 2483 otherwise 30-40 points will be loss rapidly, and all the effort in creating longs will be wasted again. Such an effort may happen in the next 1-2 weeks.

[Bonus Trade]
Buy S&P500 Emini Futures at 2463 for Target 2483 with Stop loss 2443.

Emini Futures Trading- Performance Summary Aug2017

Hello Folks, here is the Performance Summary for Aug 2017. We usually don’t publish trade wise details but August 2017 was particularly unique in how the trading results were different for two different trading styles, so we wanted to share them as an example, which can help all traders learn from our experience, and become better traders.

We have two types of trades.
(a) General Trades – suitable for all traders including those with just 1-2 contracts, and we measure our monthly performance on these trades. Only one trade is on at a give time.
(b) Optional/Tactical Trades – meant for larger traders with 5-10 or more contracts who can buy/sell 1-2 contracts at multiple market levels and exit them with 10-15 points gain. Multiple trades can be on at a give time. These are less reliable set ups, so the chances of getting hit with 10 point stop loss is 50-50 in many cases,  but we have learned from experience that such trades can be profitable in a volatile market and also in a market that is reversing after testing supports. Continue reading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 12Aug2017

Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures closed at 2440.50
Last week was outright bearish for the S&P500 index, for whatever reasons. We all know the market has been moving up without major correction, and it was going to come sooner or later. I was up till 2 am last night and back up again early today morning to do my market study. The market is making me uneasy after a long time. We have been long with confidence since Jan-Feb 2016, and whatever stop-loss we had along the way, was due to market whipsaws, but not due to trend change. The upside targets were always intact. However, now that seems to be changing. My upside target of 2500 was almost achieved by the S&P500 index, which made a high of 2490 (just 10 points less than 2500). The futures went till 2488, and reversed, which was a bearish sign. But the next day gave a bullish reversal, which offered support to market, and then we got a 40 point cut from 2470 to 2430 the next day, which has wiped out most of the recent long positions.

Please see this daily chart of S&P500 Index ETF (SPY)
spy-etf-chart-11aug2017

The S&P500 index is literally sitting on support line at 2440. The index has used this support line a few times in recent months to bounce back and resume the uptrend. Every time the index tests the support line, the index will gain some strength, but the support line becomes weaker. One of these times, the support line will give away, and we may get 80-100 point fall within a week. It is this possibility of a sharp fall below 2440 that is making me rethink our trading strategy for August. We wanted to be cautious in August from the start, and the setup is looking weak.

We will have to start a short trade at some point, and I am thinking what that point would be. The market won’t give second chances in a correction, as we saw this week. The short trades tend to be 3-4X faster than long trades, and therefore, its very difficult to catch them midway unless we are already in the trade.

One way to handle such a situation is to buy and hold SPY put options. We have done this in the past, and in case of any large market fall, the Put options work like short futures, at a fraction of the cost of futures.

My recommendation is to hold this put option: SPY Sep 2017 240 Put
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY170915P00240000

Expiry Date: Sep 15, 2017. Last traded price was $2.60
Contract size is 100. So each Put option contract will cost $260. Traders can hold a few contracts. This will offer good protection/hedge in this market till its expiry, which is one month away, and much of the current volatility would play out by then. If the futures have to go fall by 100 points to 2350, they may do it in the next 4 weeks.

Please note: the above put option is a just a suggestion, and the setup looks suitable to hold some put options. You may consider it a Bonus Trade.

With S&P500 Emini Futures, we will aim to close our long trade between 2450-2460 on Monday/Tuesday, and we will look for a short trade below 2440. The futures have to move above 2475 for the current bearish pattern to end. That’s why I was thinking of staying long with target of 2473, but it looks less likely now, compared to a retest of 2410-2420 level. I will mail you separately for this because my analysis is not complete yet. It is complex when the futures have dropped quickly to a support line, and probability of further correction is high. Please wait for my next mail with specific next steps. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 21July2017

spx500-futures-weekly-chart-21july2017

The S&P500 Emini Futures did a breakout from the 2400-2450 range that was holding the futures for last 6 weeks. This upmove is in line with our previous analysis of 2500 target for the S&P500, and it was only a matter of time that this upmove happened. We have been buying every correction below 2420, and also did a large trade from 2412 to 2438. A few other trades have been started from 2440-2450 level for targets of  2468-2480.

[Bonus Trade]: Buy Emini Futures at 2465 for Target 2485 with Stop 2450.

Support Levels: The futures will remain bullish above 2400, and therefore, 2400 should be the hard stop for all long positions. Of course, will prefer to work with 15-20 point stops in most cases. Traders should avoid long positions below 2400 level. The futures have strong support at 2350 and 2250, and any sudden large correction should find support between 2350 and 2250. Prediction of support levels in large correction will be futile. For trading purpose, we will wait for buying to come in, and some short covering indication, before we take a new trade at lower level.

Technical Analysis of S&P500 Emini Futures Weekly Chart

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Indicator: CCI (141.66) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region. CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (141.66) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. Adding bullish pressure the market just reached a 45 bar new high.

RSI Indicator: RSI is in neutral territory (at 72). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone. RSI is somewhat overbought (at 72), but given the 45 bar new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

MACD Indicator: MACD continues to be in bearish territory this week too, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

Slow Stochastic Indicator: This is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 91.95); this indicates a possible market drop maybe coming. The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don’t be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is meant solely for the understanding of technical analysis of the S&P500 Emini Futures. It is not meant to provide any investment advice.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 07July2017

http://eminifuturestrading.biz/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/spx-futures-weekly-chart-07july2017.png

The above weekly chart of S&P500 futures show clear resistance at 2450 level, which the futures have not been able to cross in last 6 weeks, despite regular attempts.The futures have closed this week in the middle of the 2400-2450 range, which has been holding up in recent weeks. The futures have strong support at 2350 and 2200 levels. While 2350 may not hold in case of strong selling pressure, we can expect 2200 to hold despite selling pressure.

Technical Analysis of S&P500 Emini Futures Weekly Chart

Moving Average Indicator:  The market has been extremely bullish in recent weeks, however currently the market is consolidating at 2420-2430 level for last 6 weeks. This is bullish and positive for the long side trades. Any dips towards 2400-2410 can be used for buying. In fact all rates below 2420 are good buying opportunity, because 2440-2445 is most likely to come in July again, giving 20-25 points gain.

Momentum Indicator: Momentum (42.00) is above zero, indicating an overbought market. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bullish territory and upmove is likely towards 2440-2450 by July end. Continue reading