The futures had a 230+ point cut in the last 48 hours, falling from 3230 to 2996. In hindsight, our target of 3230 on the General Trade turned out to be the market top, and we were fortunate with that, and even on the next Optional Trade, which also completed successfully.
The following Optional Trade (for Traders with 10+ contracts) was completed successfully with 24 points gain before weakness started creeping in on Wednesday, 10th June.
“Buy 1-2 contracts at 3196 for Target 3220 with Stop loss 3180”
Now, the volatility is high, and we don’t have a General Trade. But we are seeing upside of 3175-3180 currently, though it will be tricky to capture.
[Bonus Trade] Suitable for larger traders with a small part of capital.
“Buy at 3050 for Target 3175 with Stop loss 3000”
Market Notes and Analysis:
As indicated in previous mails, the S&P500 futures have a major resistance at 3250and we need a monthly closing above 3250 for this resistance to be taken out. The S&P500 futures tried to do that in Jan-Feb 2020 but could not succeed, and faced a big penalty for failure to cross that key hurdle.
In addition, the overall Total Equity Put/Call ratio was at an extreme low by Wednesday, 10th June, which indicated significantly one-sided bullish bets piling up in the system, which would not make it easy to cross the 3250 resistance. So, the meltdown of yesterday was very much a technical correction, and its also aimed to test the support at 3000 level.
Overall, traders have to be cautious at current levels and wait for confirmation that 3000 level (200 DMA is 3020) is getting defended, because the real big selling pressure will come below 3000. Thanks.