Tag Archives: 3100

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 12June2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are 3048.50
Today’s Range: 3003.50 – 3087.25

The futures had a 230+ point cut in the last 48 hours, falling from 3230 to 2996. In hindsight, our target of 3230 on the General Trade turned out to be the market top, and we were fortunate with that, and even on the next Optional Trade, which also completed successfully.

The following Optional Trade (for Traders with 10+ contracts) was completed successfully with 24 points gain before weakness started creeping in on Wednesday, 10th June.
“Buy 1-2 contracts at 3196 for Target 3220 with Stop loss 3180”

Now, the volatility is high, and we don’t have a General Trade. But we are seeing upside of 3175-3180 currently, though it will be tricky to capture.

[Bonus Trade] Suitable for larger traders with a small part of capital.
“Buy at 3050 for Target 3175 with Stop loss 3000”

Market Notes and Analysis:
As indicated in previous mails, the S&P500 futures have a major resistance at 3250and we need a monthly closing above 3250 for this resistance to be taken out. The S&P500 futures tried to do that in Jan-Feb 2020 but could not succeed, and faced a big penalty for failure to cross that key hurdle.

In addition, the overall Total Equity Put/Call ratio was at an extreme low by Wednesday, 10th June, which indicated significantly one-sided bullish bets piling up in the system, which would not make it easy to cross the 3250 resistance. So, the meltdown of yesterday was very much a technical correction, and its also aimed to test the support at 3000 level.

Overall, traders have to be cautious at current levels and wait for confirmation that 3000 level (200 DMA is 3020) is getting defended, because the real big selling pressure will come below 3000. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 05Mar2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3022.00 (in after market trading). The futures went down till 2996 during the day, falling from a high of 3114, which was yesterday’s closing. So today was another 100 point down day, with two 50 points spikes, to take out stop losses of all kinds of traders. That’s why this market is best avoided till it stabilizes.

All this up/down movement is to test the 200 day moving avg, which is currently at 3068. Major resistance on the upside is at 3150, and major support on the downside is at 2850. So there is a large 300 point band, in which the futures can decide their daily direction.

In current market conditions, we can’t do any real trade with less than 30 point stop loss. 20 points are going away rapidly in 5-10 minutes as if they are nothing. And support and resistance levels are also wide apart, as the S&P500 index is trying to navigate this period of high volatility.

[Bonus Trade]
Buy at 3020 for Target 3068 with Stop loss 2990.

Our S&P500 Futures Trading Strategy is to be very careful, and take very few trades after careful observation. The market has not yet stabilized, so our position size must be small, to avoid sudden losses. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 04Mar2020

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The S&P500 futures closed at 3114. It was a big green day, after a big red day. These are all indicative of the market trying to adjust itself. A retest of 200 day moving avg (3068) is sure to come tomorrow, 5th March. Traders should take profits around 3100 and wait for lower levels like 3050 to consider a new trade. 3050 should provide short term support, but 2970 is the real support on the downside.

Major resistance on the upside is at 3150, and major support on the downside is at 2850. So there is a 300 point band, in which the futures can decide their direction.

Our Emini Futures Trading Strategy is to be care careful, and take very few trades after careful observation. The market has not yet stabilized, so our position size must be small, to avoid sudden large loss.

[Bonus Trade]
Sell at 3090 for Target 3040 with Stop loss 3120.

This trade can give 50 points gain for 30 points risk. Unfortunately, in current market conditions, we can’t do any real trade with less than 30 point stop loss. 10-20 points are going away rapidly as if they are nothing. And support and resistance levels are also widely placed, as the S&P500 index is trying to navigate this period of high volatility.

spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis1-04mar2020

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 03Mar2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are currently at 3076.00
Today’s Range (so far): 3024.25 – 3135.50

Every day is a 100+ point day in range these days!
The futures moving up and down 50 points within 30 minutes- very high volatility.

The Optional Trade given yesterday (long from 2950 to 3050) hit its target of 3050 yesterday itself, giving 100 points gain. A few traders also did the previous Optional Trade during pre-market hours (with 50 points Stop loss at 2950) and for them the net gain would be 50 points. For other traders, who took just the Optional Trade during the day time, their gain was 100 points.

So it was worth taking a follow-on trade at 2950 despite getting hit with a Stop loss, because 3050 target was reliable (200 day SMA retest), and it came within a 24 hours of reversal from lower levels. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 27Feb2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 2937.00
The futures have lost 400 points or nearly 12% in last 6 days.
Its like a free fall, which I have not seen in the last 20 years.

This was my mail last Friday, Feb 21, when the futures were at 3339.
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“Just fyi, the major support is currently at 3320, and that’s also our absolute stop loss for any long trade, because below 3320, the uptrend will break, and volatility will spike up, so we will just step aside below 3320.”
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This has played out exactly as expected, but the magnitude of this correction is mind numbing. Nothing in my analysis or trading systems could predict this sharp one-way downmove of 400 points, along with a few 50-80 point pullbacks along the way, to close most of the short positions too. Continue reading →