Following is our email sent to subscribers on July 6, 2016.
Hello Folks, the futures are currently at 2086. They have recovered nicely from day low of 2066. However, selling pressure is visible on daily charts, and today’s lower level buying may not hold if fresh round of selling comes. At the same time, the V-shape recovery from lower levels after Brexit is impressive. It is possible that 2100 on futures will get tested again.
Please note our Emini Futures Trading Strategy for this July month: The 2053 number in futures is still intact as the dividing line for positional long and short trades. Below 2053, we start a short trade with 2063 as stop. Above 2053, we start a long trade with 2043 as stop.
* Traders with 1-2 contracts: There is no trade as of now for you.
* Traders with 5-10 contracts: You may buy 1-2 contracts at 2086 for target 2096, with Stop 2076. This tactical trade can play out by Friday. Thanks.
After many months, today our Stop Loss got hit at 2085, on the latest buying at 2100 done yesterday afternoon or tomorrow morning. So we are down 15 points this month as of 2nd December. In light of the sudden selling pressure today, exiting the long trade at our stop loss was the right thing to do. However, not to worry. We have made our success with careful trading strategy, and we shall recover these 15 points and lot more in the coming days/weeks.
The market is giving us a message that long positions, which took the index to 2100 yesterday were not willing to hold ahead of the US Fed meeting later this month, and many stop losses, including ours, got hit today. The S&P500 index is out of Buy Zone today but it is not in Sell zone yet. The market uptrend is still intact, but it needs caution for next 1-2 days. There is no trade for tomorrow (Thursday, Dec 03, 2015). We shall analyze the market data to arrive at our next trade. Thanks.
During the last 5 trading days, volume in S&P500 index put options has lagged volume in call options by 35% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. This is among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last 2 years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors (doesn’t sound good to me because my contra indicator says, this is walking on thin ice till we cross 2135, the previous lifetime high). How long will this upmove last? We will see based on the selling resistance faced at 2120. Technically, this is a Buy zone. 2100 has just been crossed. If it can hold, then 2120, 2135, 2150 can come. Stop Loss on every long trade is 2085. If you want to a very safe trade, then you will have to wait for 2135 to be crossed on closing basis. The Stop loss on those trades would be 2120.
S&P500 Emini Futures have been trading in a tight range between 2080 to 2090 for last several days, with support at 2070. Therefore, as long as 2070 holds, the most likely targets are 2100 and 2120. The trend is up and we should stay long. If for any reason, the index starts falling, then short trades can be started from 2060 with stop loss at 2070. The probability of sudden fall is less because the index has been spending time and consolidating at the current level of 2085, waiting for the Thanksgiving holidays to get over.
Date:Nov 10, 2015 Open=2072.25 High=2079.00 Low=2064.50 Close=2078.10
S&P500 Index is currently in uptrend, after forming a solid double-bottom at 1860-1870 level in early October 2015. The index has come back above 2050-2100 level from where it fell during Aug-Sep 2015. As long as S&P500 Index is above 2000 level, the uptrend remains intact, and we should remain long with futures. Below 2000, longs must be closed immediately, because deep downsides can start. So the major stop loss for all long trades is 2000 on S&P500 Index. Active traders can do long side trades on S&P500 E-mini Futures with 15-20 points as stop loss.