Emini Futures Trading Update- 07Nov2017

Hello Folks, this is an early morning post on Nov 7th.
The S&P500 Emini futures at 2588.50
Today’s Range (so far): 2586.75 – 2593.50

Our Trade#2 has hit its target of 2591 in overnight trading. In fact 2593 was also hit, which was our earlier target, but 2593 is the technical edge of the resistance I am seeing for today, so that was not a bankable target. For today both 2591 and 2592 had nearly equal probability but 2591 would get us out with good profit sooner and that’s why I chose 2591 as the revised target last evening.

So we have achieved our monthly performance target of 20 points with 2 trades.
Trade#1: Long from 2573 to 2585 (+12 points)
Trade#2: Long from 2583 to 2591 (+08 points)

20 points in the current market are like 25-30 points in a market in more regular conditions with normal valuations and without several weeks of upmove behind us.

Here’s the end of day chart for Nov 7, 2017.
spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis-07nov2017

Futures Analysis and Trading Strategy: The yellow line is the support line for the futures and they have been testing it periodically. Problem will come when this support line breaks and the futures close below it. That will increase selling pressure, and the futures will immediately want to test 2540-2550 again, but there is no major support till 2500, which is 85 points below current level. Therefore, once should avoid long trades below 2570 till things stabilize and the charts show strong buying action at a particular level. Continue reading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 06Oct2017

spx500-futures-weekly-chart-analysis-06oct2017

Moving Average Indicator: The S&P500 Emini futures have been consistently above the 20 week moving average, so the trend is clearly up and the market will be strongly bullish above 2500 level.

Momentum Indicator: Momentum (75) is above zero, indicating an overbought market. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Given the 45 bar new high here this is even likely. Look for some evidenced weakness before getting too bearish here. Continue reading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 29Sep2017

spx500-futures-weekly-chart-29sep2017

The S&P500 Emini Futures have closed at 2516 on Friday Sep 29, 2017, which is a new lifetime high for weekly closing. Following is our technical analysis of the weekly chart.

Moving Average Indicator: The market is very bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices ahead.

Momentum Indicator: Momentum (46.50) is above zero, indicating an overbought market. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bullish territory.upside move is likely. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible.

Rate of Change (ROC) Indicator: Rate of Change (1.88) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bullish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible. Continue reading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 08Sep2017

spx-500-futures-daily-chart-analysis-08sep2017

The S&P500 Emini Futures are currently at 2463. The futures have been testing various support levels like 2410-2420 to 2440-2450 over the last 2 months, and they are preparing for a fresh attempt to cross 2480. Previous attempt failed and the futures fell nearly 70 points from 2488 till 2420. So the futures are taking their time in testing all support levels in order to launch a fresh attempt to cross 2480 and go towards 2500.

There is a solid resistance/ selling pressure at 2480-2483 level, and it will need a strong push to cross it. There can be no room for selling pressure around 2483 otherwise 30-40 points will be loss rapidly, and all the effort in creating longs will be wasted again. Such an effort may happen in the next 1-2 weeks.

[Bonus Trade]
Buy S&P500 Emini Futures at 2463 for Target 2483 with Stop loss 2443.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 21July2017

spx500-futures-weekly-chart-21july2017

The S&P500 Emini Futures did a breakout from the 2400-2450 range that was holding the futures for last 6 weeks. This upmove is in line with our previous analysis of 2500 target for the S&P500, and it was only a matter of time that this upmove happened. We have been buying every correction below 2420, and also did a large trade from 2412 to 2438. A few other trades have been started from 2440-2450 level for targets of  2468-2480.

[Bonus Trade]: Buy Emini Futures at 2465 for Target 2485 with Stop 2450.

Support Levels: The futures will remain bullish above 2400, and therefore, 2400 should be the hard stop for all long positions. Of course, will prefer to work with 15-20 point stops in most cases. Traders should avoid long positions below 2400 level. The futures have strong support at 2350 and 2250, and any sudden large correction should find support between 2350 and 2250. Prediction of support levels in large correction will be futile. For trading purpose, we will wait for buying to come in, and some short covering indication, before we take a new trade at lower level.

Technical Analysis of S&P500 Emini Futures Weekly Chart

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Indicator: CCI (141.66) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region. CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (141.66) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. Adding bullish pressure the market just reached a 45 bar new high.

RSI Indicator: RSI is in neutral territory (at 72). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone. RSI is somewhat overbought (at 72), but given the 45 bar new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

MACD Indicator: MACD continues to be in bearish territory this week too, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

Slow Stochastic Indicator: This is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 91.95); this indicates a possible market drop maybe coming. The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don’t be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is meant solely for the understanding of technical analysis of the S&P500 Emini Futures. It is not meant to provide any investment advice.