Hello Folks, the Emini S&P500 (ES) futures are at 2650. The futures broke their support at 2650 yesterday and went down till 2620 today morning, and have recovered from there back to 2650. However, 2600 is most likely to be tested once before any reversal, because the 200 day SMA is at 2596 currently, and the 200 day EMA is at 2610 currently. So the futures will most likely test 2600 level today or in the next couple of days before we can expect a reliable reversal.
We can expect a reversal from 2600 towards 2700 because the fundamentals of S&P500 companies are in good shape. But its very rare to see a reversal without testing the 200 day SMA when the index is so close to it. Strong support is at 2580, which should hold this time. Resistance is at 2680 and 2780. Please see the attached chart. Continue reading →
Hello Folks, hope you had a good Xmas weekend.
The Emini futures are currently at 2260. The volumes have been very low, so we will have to see where the direction is with volume pick up. The long trade is still on. A retest of 2070-2080 level is possible this week. 2248-2250 should be the absolute stop loss on long trades. Below 2240, the S&P500 will face high selling pressure and we can see 2200 within a few sessions. Short positions can be taken between 2245 and 2215. In summary, our S&P500 futures strategy is to remain long above 2050 and go short below 2250.
Please Note: If Trump fails to deliver on the promises, then this Trump rally will unwind over the next 6-12 months and we will see 2080 again, which is nearly 200 points correction from current level. Experience says hope rallies often get tested again and again, so we are likely to see 2180-2200 again in 2017. Traders should keep taking profits regularly. All the best!
Emini S&P500 futures have hit 2270 today, extending past our previously published technical target of 2260. However, selling pressure can rapidly emerge and increase around 2260 level. The futures were running at par with index prices during the early part of the rise from 2200 to 2250. The futures are now running at a discount to index prices, indicating increasing amount of futures selling.
A correction from current levels is possible, and the futures can go down till 2230 without breaking the uptrend. Traders may look for a Sell trade below 2250 for 10-15 point gain.
Another Emini futures trading strategy at current levels is to stay long above 2250, with 2250 has the Stop and take profits at every 10-15 points gain. If you see 5-10 point gap down one of these days, that could also be used for selling with 10-15 points gain.
Overall, there can be no high conviction short selling as long the futures are above 2200. All short trades above 2200 are tactical, only with the aim to gain 10-15 points from the periodic corrections arising due to profit taking in this big rally spanning Nov-Dec 2016.
The above chart clearly shows a strong support zone between 2100-2120 for the S&P500 futures. They have bounced back from this support zone twice in recent days, so we can expect an upmove of 40-50 points from the support zone of 2100-2120 before any fresh selling pressure gets applied by the short sellers. So potential upside target is 2150-2160. We can be sure that there short sellers because many fund managers will try to hedge their equity portfolios by shorting the S&P500 Futures. And then there will be some naked short sellers who are convinced of lower targets after US Elections in November 2016. Therefore, we have to book trading profits in the 2150-2160 range without becoming greedy. A real long trade with high conviction can start only above 2200, which will then involve massive short covering and immediate target in that case would be 2240. We will discuss that trade when we get there. There are many roadblocks before that, because the daily charts are showing that medium-term market trend is down until 2180 is crossed. Continue reading →
New York, 3.45 pm EDT
Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2127.50
The previous trade hit stop loss, and futures have bounced back.
Here is our next trade.
Trade#4 of Oct 2016
Buy Emini Futures at 2128 for target 2156 with Stop 2115
Trade Rationale: We are taking 13 points risk, for 28 points reward. And the set up is as good as it can get. Today, the bottom formation looks emphatic.
Please Note: Once the S&P500 Emini futures move above 2140, then the Stop Loss can be increased to 2128 (buying price), and target can remain 2156. Above 2153, the targets of 2175-2180 will restart. So the same trade can be continued, or a new trade can be taken.