S&P500 Futures Monthly Chart Analysis – 29July2016

Following is the S&P500 Futures Monthly Chart over last 10 years from August 2017 to July 2016. The S&P500 index futures have been moving up firmly on the support of a long term trend line since March 2009. Like all trend lines, this trend line will also break one day, and open the way for larger downside. We don’t know when that will happen, so we have to trade with cautious, every time we bounce away from the trend line because there is a strong tendency to revert back to it, which is currently at 1900, or 265 point behind. sp500-futures-monthly-chart-29july2016

On the upside, 2200 is a reliable target, and it can come in August if some major bad news does not come. As mentioned previously on this website, our strategy for year 2016 has to been to stay long above 2000, and that has worked well, and we have 165 points gain on the positional trade, which has been done in several parts over last 4 months. August is a month of high volatility and we have to be cautious.

Emini Futures Trading Update – 30June2016

Hello Folks, the futures are currently at 2088.
Our Trade#6 has its target of 2083 today afternoon, and therefore, this trade is closed, along with month-end today. We will start new set of trades from tomorrow, 1st July.

The v-shape recovery after Brexit reminds me of the v-shape recovery after the first Grexit news flow in 2011 and then the S&P500 went up further after emphatic bounce back. If S&P500 index goes above 2100 again, then we will see new highs in the coming weeks and 2250 will be our target.

Just like we have a standing trade, to go long above 2053, we will have a new standing trade above 2135, which will ensure that we are benefiting from the upmove. I will give the exact details of this trade once S&P500 index is at 2120 and nearing the previous highs. Thanks.

[Positional Trade Update]: Traders with multiple contracts who went long above 2053 (our automatic long trade), can now close their long positions today/tomorrow around 2083-2093 (current levels), and take out the 30-40 points profits. We will plan new positional trade for July from tomorrow. Thanks.

Wishing good luck and fortune to every sincere and disciplined Emini Futures trader out there. Thanks for visiting our website.

Bonus Trade: Buy the Brexit – 24Jun2016

30 June 2016, 4.45pm, New York: Trade Update: All traders who managed to ride the volatility over last one week have gained 50-80 points in the market rebound from the knee-jerk Brexit fall. That was the key message of this Bonus Trade, to use the sudden correction to go long in the Emini Futures. Our stop loss was hit, but we got back into the long trade again above 2020, and have closed the long trade at our pre-defined target of 2083. After factoring stop loss, this “Buy the Brexit” trade has give about 35-40 points gain over last 1 week, which is very good.
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2.40 pm, New York: Trade Update: The Emini Futures are currently at 2032. Gradual correction from day’s high of 2064.75 indicates readiness to go higher in a burst at the right opportunity either today or next week. Here is another Bonus Trade: Buy Emini Futures at 2032 for Target 2053 with Stop at 2020. That’s 12 points at risk for 21 points of gain. 2053 should come again with high probability today or on Monday.

11.40 am, New York: Trade Update: The Emini Futures are currently at 2048. Traders can buy this dip for upside targets of 2056 and 2065 either today or by Monday/Tuesday next week. Keep 2030 as the Stop for all long trades now.

10.00 am, New York: Trade Update: The Emini Futures are currently at 2056. The first target of 2053 has been hit with high speed. That gives 25 points profit, which is $1500 even with one contract, and we have traders using 4-5 contracts. We had sent a mail out to our subscribers to buy the Emini Futures at 2020, with the same target of 2053, giving a gain on 33 points in 2 hours. It looks like our next target of 2065 will also come today itself, based on the sharp recovery seen in the UK FTSE 100 index.

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08:00 am, New York: Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini Futures are currently at 2028.
Here is a Bonus Trade for all our website visitors.

Traders can buy S&P500 Emini Futures at 2028 (or market price) for Target 2053 and Stop Loss 2010. The upside target of 2053 can come today itself by end of trading day or latest by Monday. The next target would be 2065, which can come by next week end. Therefore, traders with multiple contracts can book half profit at 2053 and the rest at 2065 next week. All the best!

The S&P500 Emini Futures are blind-buy after the large overnight fall. Remember our monthly cut-off line of 2053 – that has to be tested once even before any real fall. S&P500 is the most reliable index of the world and it will show everybody the same by recovering from the sharp fall. Imagine the futures have moved from a high of 2120 yesterday to a low of 2000 today – enough to shake every position and trigger all stop losses, except those kept around 1990-1995. S&P500 is likely to reward every buyer today. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Update – 23May2016

Our trading last week was far from optimal, and we had many stop losses from the daily change in market direction, just around our key level of 2053 in futures. The US Fed rate hike scenario in June significantly increased volatility and paused the upmove of the S&P500 which was clearly visible till a week back. In fact, we had a profitable trade with 15 points running when the US Fed meeting notes came out and that trade went down to hit 10 point stop loss within minutes.

Please see the chart below. The S&P500 futures have been trading in a narrow channel of about 45 points band, and they have been changing direction almost everyday, thereby hitting any stop loss that is less than 20-25 points, and then targets of 10-15 point targets are getting hit. Its like a mixer and its not profitable.
spx-daily-chart-23may2016

In such a scenario, the only way to trade without sacrificing stop losses is to widen the stop loss to the outer levels of the channel. So the stop for long trade would be 2020, and stop for short trade would be 2060 on the futures.

The uptrend which started in Feb has been closed in May after last week’s movement, and now there is a strong bias for downside moves. Long trades should be taken only above 2060, or at the lower end of the channel around 2025-2030 with a tight stop of 2020.

Emini Futures Trading Update – 13Apr2016

Wednesday, April 13, 2016, 9.45am, New York – Hello Folks, the futures are currently at 2069. For Trade#2 of April, our target of 2067 has been hit successfully today morning. I was expecting it to come by Friday as mentioned in the email last evening. But the momentum is strong and our target got hit today morning itself. This completes Trade#2, with 28 points gain from.

Trade#2 of April 2016 (completed)
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Buy at: 2039
Target: 2067 (hit on April 13, 2016)
Stop: 2030
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This trade has moved fast, and its good we took this immediately after our Stop Loss on Trade#1. We will wait for the index to take a breather after the hectic 40 point upmove from 2030 to 2070 in the last 2 days since Monday morning, and then decide our next trade.

[Emini Futures Trading Strategy] The S&P500 has strong resistance at 2075-2080 level, which translates to about 2070-2073 levels on the SPX/ES futures. However, the S&P500 index is in positive buy zone above 2058, which translates to about 2050 level of the futures. If the S&P500 index goes below 2000 for any reason, all longs must be closed. Of course we will be having predefined Stops much above 2000 level.

[Bonus Trade] Large Traders with 5-10 contracts: You may Sell 2-3 contracts at 2068, for Target 2058, and Stop 2075. This is a tactical trade that aims to benefit from the inevitable profit booking that may come today or tomorrow. Thanks & Best Wishes.