Hello Folks, this is an early morning post on Nov 7th.
The S&P500 Emini futures at 2588.50
Today’s Range (so far): 2586.75 – 2593.50
Our Trade#2 has hit its target of 2591 in overnight trading. In fact 2593 was also hit, which was our earlier target, but 2593 is the technical edge of the resistance I am seeing for today, so that was not a bankable target. For today both 2591 and 2592 had nearly equal probability but 2591 would get us out with good profit sooner and that’s why I chose 2591 as the revised target last evening.
So we have achieved our monthly performance target of 20 points with 2 trades.
Trade#1: Long from 2573 to 2585 (+12 points)
Trade#2: Long from 2583 to 2591 (+08 points)
20 points in the current market are like 25-30 points in a market in more regular conditions with normal valuations and without several weeks of upmove behind us.
Here’s the end of day chart for Nov 7, 2017.
Futures Analysis and Trading Strategy: The yellow line is the support line for the futures and they have been testing it periodically. Problem will come when this support line breaks and the futures close below it. That will increase selling pressure, and the futures will immediately want to test 2540-2550 again, but there is no major support till 2500, which is 85 points below current level. Therefore, once should avoid long trades below 2570 till things stabilize and the charts show strong buying action at a particular level. Continue reading
S&P500 Market Analysis: The S&P500 index futures have been moving up week after week, for the last 10 weeks, which is one of the longest patch of green weeks with gains, without a red week. Traders should watch out for strong resistance at 2580 level. It will not be easy to cross. 2500 is a large long term target for this market, so reversal to 2500 is imminent or just a matter of time. We may do some more long trades while the trend us up, but we should not forget that 2500 can come any day, any week – it is a very real target for this market, and 2500 needs to be tested several times before a sustainable upmove above 2600 can happen.
S&P500 Support Levels: The two key support levels for the S&P500 futures are: 2500 and 2400, which will be useful to absorb minor sell-offs, and 2100 is a strong support that can defend against major sell offs. The long term support for this market is still at 1600, and that is not changing anytime soon. The zone between 1600 and 2100 should good for buying and holding for big gains. Continue reading
Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures at 2556.75.
Today’s Range: 2552.25 – 2557.75
Please note the trade modification.
Trade#1 of Oct 2017 (updated target)
Buy Emini Futures at 2552 for Target 2572 with Stop loss 2540.
(Note: This trade was completed successfully on Oct 20, with 20 points gain)
The futures have moved well today. They showed strength despite intraday weakness. I saw the futures at 2553 in the morning, and was thinking that a close below 2550 will be negative, and a close above 2556 will be positive. The last several days of small narrow range days have set the stage for big move now. As stated yesterday, the probability of upmove is higher because the futures have been holding up above 2550. However, for any reason, if they go below 2550, then fresh selling can rapidly take the futures down to 2530-2535. Continue reading
Moving Average Indicator: The S&P500 Emini futures have been consistently above the 20 week moving average, so the trend is clearly up and the market will be strongly bullish above 2500 level.
Momentum Indicator: Momentum (75) is above zero, indicating an overbought market. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Given the 45 bar new high here this is even likely. Look for some evidenced weakness before getting too bearish here. Continue reading
The S&P500 Emini Futures have closed at 2516 on Friday Sep 29, 2017, which is a new lifetime high for weekly closing. Following is our technical analysis of the weekly chart.
Moving Average Indicator: The market is very bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices ahead.
Momentum Indicator: Momentum (46.50) is above zero, indicating an overbought market. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bullish territory.upside move is likely. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible.
Rate of Change (ROC) Indicator: Rate of Change (1.88) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bullish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible. Continue reading