Tag Archives: SP500 Buying Triggers

Emini Futures Trading Update- 03Jan2017

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2242. The futures lost 20 points from day high of 2059 to make day low of 2039.

Trade#1 of Jan 2017 has hit stop loss at 2248. This is our 3rd stop loss of 6 points in this zone of 2250, including the two stops we had in December month So we will have to wait for 2250 to be crossed or broken decisively. All these stop losses will be recovered in one good trade of 20-25 points.

I am looking at 2260 on the S&P500 index. There is a clear long trade above this level. The index went till 2263 today but failed to hold and a 20 point sell off followed. We will get back into the market in a day or two once direction become clear again. There will be tactical trades along the way. The zone for short trades is from below 2240 as mentioned in previous mail today. The futures have bounced back from 2240 multiple times, so we have to see if this level holds.

Traders with 1-2 contracts: There is no immediate trade. Please wait for the next trade specifically for you.

Traders with 5-10 contracts: Here is another tactical trade for you. You can Buy 1-2 contracts at/above 2242 for Target 2252 with Stop 2238. [Update: This tactical trade of 10 points was successfully completely today itself by end of day]

Please Note: The broad view for this month is to be long above 2250 and short below 2240. We will try to create trades using this view. 2252 is acting a key resistance in futures, and 2238 is acting as support.

Background Notes: Jan has been a tough month for markets last 3 years, with S&P500 losing at least 3 percent in Jan 2014, 2015, 2016. Jan is difficult because large investors will do portfolio adjustments and if previous months were good, there is a tendency to become conservative and go into liquid funds. We traders need to be very cautious in Jan. All the best!

S&P500 Emini Futures Hit 2200 Today!

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sp500-futures-daily-chart-22nov2016

Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini Futures Hit 2200 Today! As regular website visitors and our subscribers will note, 2200 was our long pending target above 2134 (the previous high on the S&P500 index). Past charts have indicated that once S&P500 breaks its high (2134), it will go and hit the next higher round number level, which was 2200 in this case.

But this upmove has come with a twist. The futures fell to 2040 on US Election day and then bounced back — after offloading many longs and collecting many new shorts — which made this upmove possible. This rise has come while global markets are flat or falling, so we should be cautious about any abrupt reversal of US market sentiment.

We have been constantly long above 2100 — with 2180 as Target#1, and 2200 as Target#2. Both have been hit this month, making Nov 2016 once of the very profitable months.

What happens next? There may be resistance at 2209-2210 level. Selling pressure can come between 2205-2210 on futures, from some profitable long positions deciding to exit. Very few shorts will enter till weakness appears, and weakness will appear below 2180. Strength will appear above 2210 (on S&P500 index ). Above 2210, the index/futures can go to 2234 (which is 100 points gain above the previous high of 2134).

Bonus Trade: Traders can remain long above 2200 for target 2220-2230 and 2190 as stop loss.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis – 21Oct2016

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sp500-emini-futures-daily-chart-analysis-21oct2016

The above chart clearly shows a strong support zone between 2100-2120 for the S&P500 futures. They have bounced back from this support zone twice in recent days, so we can expect an upmove of 40-50 points from the support zone of 2100-2120 before any fresh selling pressure gets applied by the short sellers. So potential upside target is 2150-2160. We can be sure that there short sellers because many fund managers will try to hedge their equity portfolios by shorting the S&P500 Futures. And then there will be some naked short sellers who are convinced of lower targets after US Elections in November 2016. Therefore, we have to book trading profits in the 2150-2160 range without becoming greedy. A real long trade with high conviction can start only above 2200, which will then involve massive short covering and immediate target in that case would be 2240. We will discuss that trade when we get there. There are many roadblocks before that, because the daily charts are showing that medium-term market trend is down until 2180 is crossed. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Update – 26Aug2016

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sp500-emini-futures-weekly-chart-26aug2016

Here is the weekly chart of S&P500 Emini futures. The current upside target is 2200. The 3 major support levels are marked in yellow. They are at: 2150, 2000, 1850. As you will observe, they are at a gap of 150 points each. We can hold long positions with 2150 as stop. Between 2150 and 2100, its a zone of indecision and we can avoid long or short trades. Below 2100, we can sell Emini futures for targets of 2020 with stop of 2120. If the index goes into a correction mode, we have to wait aside for the fall to stop and a green week to come, which will indicate larger buyers are stepping in. Only then, we can consider new long positions in Emini futures. Thanks.

 

Emini Futures Trading Update- 06July2016

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Following is our email sent to subscribers on July 6, 2016.

Hello Folks, the futures are currently at 2086. They have recovered nicely from day low of 2066. However, selling pressure is visible on daily charts, and today’s lower level buying may not hold if fresh round of selling comes. At the same time, the V-shape recovery from lower levels after Brexit is impressive. It is possible that 2100 on futures will get tested again.

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Please note our Emini Futures Trading Strategy for this July month: The 2053 number in futures is still intact as the dividing line for positional long and short trades. Below 2053, we start a short trade with 2063 as stop. Above 2053, we start a long trade with 2043 as stop.
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* Traders with 1-2 contracts: There is no trade as of now for you.
* Traders with 5-10 contracts: You may buy 1-2 contracts at 2086 for target 2096, with Stop 2076. This tactical trade can play out by Friday. Thanks.