Category Archives: S&P500 Futures Technical Analysis

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 09Dec2016

Posted on by

spx500-emini-futures-daily-chart-target-2250-08dec2016

S&P500 futures moved up vertically after crossing the resistance at 2213. This threshold level was shared with our subscribers in advance, so that some traders could automatically initiate long positions above 2213 with Stop at 2200 and targets of 2234-2247. So this trading strategy has given about 30 points gain this week.

The key support levels are marked in the attached chart in yellow. They are 2100, 2160, 2180. Above 2200, we are in uncharted territory and

S&P500 futures have hit 2260 today afternoon, which was our technical target for the current upmove from 2180, and this was shared with our subscribers when the futures were at 2230 – to give them an idea of the magnitude of the upmove, so that they could plan their trades and gain maximum number of points from the good rally at hand because such rallies come only 2-3 times in a year.

We did not wait for 2260 to book profit on our long trade. We exited most of our long positions at a pre-defined target of 2247, which was sure to come when the S&P500 index goes to test 2250. Some of our larger traders who trade with 5-10 contracts were able to capture the 50 point gain from 2200 to 2250 with 2-3 contracts, while using the other contracts for trades of 10-20 points, which is the prudent way to do it, because we could not have predicted 5 green days non-stop. Now, we have to let the US Fed give their updates on interest rate policy and take any new trades after Dec 12-13. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Update- 09Dec2016

Posted on by

Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are currently at 2254. The futures have moved from low of 1980 to 2250 this week – that’s 70 points in a week, a very good upmove indeed!

Different traders should have been able to capture different number of points based on the trading strategy recommended to them, but everybody should have made some profit in this upmove.

For example, Small traders with 1-2 contracts were asked to buy the futures at 2234 for target 2247 with stop 2226, and that trade completed within 24 hours, giving 13 points gain. Large traders with 5-10 contracts should have started long positions automatically above 2200 for target 2234 with 2180 as Stop Loss, getting at least 30-35 points gain per contract between 2200 and 2247.

In fact, a similar long trade was suggested as a Bonus Trade on Nov 22, 2016 and hence available to all our website visitors for free. Please see the previous post titled: S&P500 Emini Futures Hit 2200 Today!
———————–
Nov 22, 2016 Bonus Trade: Traders can remain long above 2200 for target 2220-2230 and 2190 as stop loss.
————————-

What happens next? After 70 point non-stop upmove, there can be some pause or profit booking. The Technical target for this upmove is 2260, which is just 6 points away from current price of 2254. For us, there is no new trade currently. There is a sell signal on the hourly charts with potential target of 2232, which could come next week after the US Fed Meeting updates on Interest Rate policy, when markets will try to adjust to the news and volatility can come back. So we will wait and watch for the next opportunity.Thanks.

S&P500 Emini Futures Hit 2200 Today!

Posted on by

sp500-futures-daily-chart-22nov2016

Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini Futures Hit 2200 Today! As regular website visitors and our subscribers will note, 2200 was our long pending target above 2134 (the previous high on the S&P500 index). Past charts have indicated that once S&P500 breaks its high (2134), it will go and hit the next higher round number level, which was 2200 in this case.

But this upmove has come with a twist. The futures fell to 2040 on US Election day and then bounced back — after offloading many longs and collecting many new shorts — which made this upmove possible. This rise has come while global markets are flat or falling, so we should be cautious about any abrupt reversal of US market sentiment.

We have been constantly long above 2100 — with 2180 as Target#1, and 2200 as Target#2. Both have been hit this month, making Nov 2016 once of the very profitable months.

What happens next? There may be resistance at 2209-2210 level. Selling pressure can come between 2205-2210 on futures, from some profitable long positions deciding to exit. Very few shorts will enter till weakness appears, and weakness will appear below 2180. Strength will appear above 2210 (on S&P500 index ). Above 2210, the index/futures can go to 2234 (which is 100 points gain above the previous high of 2134).

Bonus Trade: Traders can remain long above 2200 for target 2220-2230 and 2190 as stop loss.

Emini Futures Trading Update- 17Nov2016

Posted on by

The S&P500 Emini futures are currently at 2180. The futures are moving up quickly on market open, probably after seeing the US Fed commentary from Janet Yellen, that the rate hike in Dec will be along expected lines (25 bps), which is already factored (supposedly) in the current price.

So there a fresh short-term buy signal this morning above 2175, and the futures are moving up in a very clear way. Traders can stay long above 2173-2175 levels and aim for 2183-2185 levels.

This clear upmove helps up to put a tighter stop because if this upmove reverses, then it can easily fall to 2160 and we don’t want to hold the long anymore in such a case. The Stop Loss for any long position should be at 2172-2173. This is one of the rarer cases when we can put a tight 5 point stop below buying level, because we don’t want to part of any downward reversal from current level.

Please Note: Dec 2016 is the month of US Fed rate hike meeting. Dec 2015 was the most deceptive month of year 2016, when almost every every analysis produced wrong trades and we got lot of whipsaws.

The key learning from Dec 2015 was to be very careful with Dec month around the US Fed meeting. In Dec, many US funds are winding down their positions and market participation could be less (though unlikely this year because of new President factor), which can create larger swings. We must be very cautious. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis – 21Oct2016

Posted on by

sp500-emini-futures-daily-chart-analysis-21oct2016

The above chart clearly shows a strong support zone between 2100-2120 for the S&P500 futures. They have bounced back from this support zone twice in recent days, so we can expect an upmove of 40-50 points from the support zone of 2100-2120 before any fresh selling pressure gets applied by the short sellers. So potential upside target is 2150-2160. We can be sure that there short sellers because many fund managers will try to hedge their equity portfolios by shorting the S&P500 Futures. And then there will be some naked short sellers who are convinced of lower targets after US Elections in November 2016. Therefore, we have to book trading profits in the 2150-2160 range without becoming greedy. A real long trade with high conviction can start only above 2200, which will then involve massive short covering and immediate target in that case would be 2240. We will discuss that trade when we get there. There are many roadblocks before that, because the daily charts are showing that medium-term market trend is down until 2180 is crossed. Continue reading →