Date: Jan 20, 2016 | 08:15 am US EST, New York.
S&P500 Futures are currently at 1839, with early morning low of 1830. Down 33 points from yesterday’s close, or -1.8% down. We are going to import deflation this morning from overseas- for the Nth time! Crude Oil $27.63 per barrel, down -2.92% which has caused global equities to correct by 2-3% today. And it doesn’t help that some US large cap industry leaders are suddenly talking about weak economy this year. The CBOE Put/Call ratio is at its highest in the last 2 years. There is a V-shaped reversal rally somewhere here. We will know when it comes – can’t point it out in advance.
Today morning, S&P500 Futures have hit the bottom channel of their trading support trend line. See the hourly chart below. This trend line must hold, otherwise a new phase of downside will start. Buyers are hiding in bunkers after 15 days of relentless fall, and Sellers are also unsure of selling afresh after such a down move, and wondering if this is some kind of major bear trap that will be used as fuel to propel the S&P500 beyond 2100 this time.
The larger trend is now firmly down, unless S&P500 index starts trading above 2060. However, we will get trading opportunities on both long and short side.The major hurdle to cross will be 2000. A reversal till 1980 is possible in Feb 2016.