Date: Jan 20, 2016 | 08:15 am US EST, New York.
S&P500 Futures are currently at 1839, with early morning low of 1830. Down 33 points from yesterday’s close, or -1.8% down. We are going to import deflation this morning from overseas- for the Nth time! Crude Oil $27.63 per barrel, down -2.92% which has caused global equities to correct by 2-3% today. And it doesn’t help that some US large cap industry leaders are suddenly talking about weak economy this year. The CBOE Put/Call ratio is at its highest in the last 2 years. There is a V-shaped reversal rally somewhere here. We will know when it comes – can’t point it out in advance.
Today morning, S&P500 Futures have hit the bottom channel of their trading support trend line. See the hourly chart below. This trend line must hold, otherwise a new phase of downside will start. Buyers are hiding in bunkers after 15 days of relentless fall, and Sellers are also unsure of selling afresh after such a down move, and wondering if this is some kind of major bear trap that will be used as fuel to propel the S&P500 beyond 2100 this time.
The larger trend is now firmly down, unless S&P500 index starts trading above 2060. However, we will get trading opportunities on both long and short side.The major hurdle to cross will be 2000. A reversal till 1980 is possible in Feb 2016.
Date: Jan 19, 2016 | 09:45 am US EST, New York.
Hello Folks, good morning. A long weekend break has helped to calm down the market’s nerves, and Asian markets did well, and European markets (CAC, DAX) are in bright green with 2% gains, so the global market sentiment is recovering from extreme bearish mood. However, we can’t say whether sentiment will recover fully or get bearish again after 2-3 days. We will let the S&P500 index decide that for us. For now, the S&P500 is underperforming the other markets with weaker gains off the start. We can expect something better from current levels.
The futures are currently at 1888. The next buy signal will come above 1895, and we can aim for 10-20 points from there. Traders can aim to buy the futures above 1896 with 8-10 point stop, and target gain of 20-25 points. A clear and stronger buy signal will come at 1919 in futures. So one can go long on S&P500 Emini Futures above 1920 for targets of 1943-1947.
Afternoon Update: 1:30 pm US EST, New York.
The futures are currently at 1875. They have given up the gains from the gap up opening in the morning.
After my previous message in the morning, the futures went up till 1894.50 and fell back, while our first buying trigger would have come at 1895, and buying order was set at 1896. So it came very close to triggering our buy order, which would have resulted in hitting a stop loss. So we have saved money today with our analysis and suitable placement of orders.
The selling momentum has reduced and CBOE Put/Call Ratio is indicating that we maybe near a reversal move, which can take the S&P500 to about 1970-1980 levels before next major resistance comes. We will wait for the suitable buying triggers to come, taking one step at a time.