Tag Archives: SP500 Support Levels

Emini Futures Trading Update- 24Apr2018

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2635.75
Today’s Range: 2616.25 – 2688.50

The futures tried to cross 2680 (the known resistance level) but failed, and a series of supports broke, mainly 2650 and 2630, with cascading stop losses. The market is talking about the weakness in FAANG stocks, but it could have been something else too. The set up was getting weak below 2680.

Please refer my mail from last Friday: “The futures may test both 2650 and 2690 in the coming week. The support at 2600 should hold.” Today 2650 was broken but 2600 has held. The probability of 2600 level breaking is low, and even if it breaks, the futures may bounce back within an hour. So we can continue to work with 2600 level as the absolute stop loss.

Traders with 5-10 contracts:
Here is a new optional trade that can be done with 1-2 contracts.
“Buy at 2630 for Target 2666 with Stop loss 2600”

The futures have now lost 80 points from the 2712 level, where we first saw weakness creep in on a bullish set up. We will do a new trade once market stabilizes. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Update- 11Apr2018

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2653.00
Today’s Range: 2626.00 – 2661.25

The futures have been volatile so far this week, moving up down 30-40 points rapidly, and such moves will break any trading set up. So our decision to wait and watch is proving right as of now.

The futures are back above 2650 currently after an intraday fall to 2626, which is a positive sign. They have been testing 2630-2640 support level everyday this week, and if that testing is completed successfully, we can see an upmove to 2680-2700. Reliable trades will be possible above 2680.

In the last few weeks, the S&P500 has been facing sharp knee jerk selling of 30-40 points suddenly during the day, or after market hours. That is not a regular feature, so we have to wait for some more time for the S&P500 to give a double confirmation on the upmove. The down move is mostly locked out at 2600, which is also the 200 day SMA. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Update- 09Apr2018

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2650.50
Today’s Range: 2609.25 – 2651.25

We have let the futures stabilize over the last 1 week, and the daily volatility has reduced a bit from Mach last week, after repeated successive testing of 2600 level, which is the 200 Day SMA and EMA. So the futures are safe currently, but the set up is not yet strong enough for a general trade. The setup will become strong above 2700, where we can do trades with 20 point stop loss with more reliability. Currently 20 point stop loss can be hit despite getting market direction right.

Traders with 5-10 contracts:
Here’s a new optional trade that can be done with 1-2 contracts.
“Buy at 2630 for Target 2680 with Stop loss 2600”
This trade will trigger if there is a 20 point pullback.
As mentioned earlier, 2600 is the absolute stop loss, and we can stay long above it with a few contracts.

So far all buying after every sharp fall at/below 2600 has rewarded with a reversal to 2650. So it looks like the S&P500 is repairing the damage caused in Feb-March. Upside target of 2850-2900 is intact. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Update- 28Mar2018

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spx500-futures-chart-analysis-28mar2018Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2610.00
Today’s Range: 2593.00 – 2633.50

The futures are holding above 2600, which is positive for now. Yesterday, they fell below 2600 twice and in between bounced up above 2630 and again fell back to 2600, hitting our absolute stop loss at 2600. The futures went above 2630 briefly, which is the safety zone, but fell back to 2600. The market has been more volatile than I expected because futures have come back to their 200 day SMA after testing it just 2 days back, which is very uncommon, and we got a cascade of stop losses till 2593.

We had a high quality set up at 2650, which hit stop loss at 2630. And unfortunately 2630 was picked up in the bounce from 2600, and that breakout failed. That breakout setup at 2630 came for the first time after 07 March 2018, after nearly 3 weeks, so we trusted it, like many others, but it failed. There is enormous stress in the market currently, and 2600 is the last point of long trade. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 23Mar2018

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Hello Folks, the Emini S&P500 (ES) futures are at 2650. The futures broke their support at 2650 yesterday and went down till 2620 today morning, and have recovered from there back to 2650. However, 2600 is most likely to be tested once before any reversal, because the 200 day SMA is at 2596 currently, and the 200 day EMA is at 2610 currently. So the futures will most likely test 2600 level today or in the next couple of days before we can expect a reliable reversal.

We can expect a reversal from 2600 towards 2700 because the fundamentals of S&P500 companies are in good shape. But its very rare to see a reversal without testing the 200 day SMA when the index is so close to it. Strong support is at 2580, which should hold this time. Resistance is at 2680 and 2780. Please see the attached chart. Continue reading →