Tag Archives: SP500 Trading Strategy

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 21Feb2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3357.25
Today’s Range (so far): 3345.00 – 3369.00

S&P500 Futures Technical Analysis: The futures are trying to find support below 3350 and have bounced back from 3345 early today morning, and the momentum indicators reversing from lower levels, which is a positive sign. At the same time, the futures are facing resistance at 3360. The futures are likely to go up and retest 3375-3380, where there is major resistance. So, we can use this fact to get back into long trade in a small way, because we have already exited at 3380 in the previous trade.

spx500-futures-hourly-chart-analysis1-21feb2020

Our S&P500 Futures Trading Strategy is to stay long above 3340, which is was the reversal point yesterday. So we will continue to buy the corrections, which has worked successfully in the entire uptrend since Oct 2019. The absolute stop loss on all long trades is 3320, below which the uptrend will break. The next major target is 3420, which is still on. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 11Feb2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3360.00
The futures broke out of 3340 resistance after market hours yesterday and moved up till 3374, and corrected back to 3360 by end of day.

These days, we are seeing the exact opposite in Feb 2020 compared to Aug 2019. In Aug 2019, we had constant selling and gap downs in after market, and now we are seeing constant gap up in after market. But then, Aug 2019 was the low point in that market cycle, so is this a near term top? We have to be careful.

As mentioned in previous mails, above 3300, the upside target of 3350-3360 is there, but it was not a reliable path because of the resistance at 3340. That’s why we didn’t do a new Optional Trade for target 3360. We have no new trade as of now. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 30Jan2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3289.00
The futures went down till 3240 with gap down today morning and by end of day, they bounced back sharply to 3289, and there by closed above 3280. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 27Jan2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3244.00
Today’s Range (so far): 3235.75 – 3268.50

The futures are down 50 points from Friday’s closing. There was a gap down opening of 25 points below Friday’s closing of 3293, and the futures have gone down further on liquidation of long positions with stop losses. As we mentioned earlier, the futures can correct rapidly below 3300, and that has played out since Friday evening. That’s why 3300-3290 were last Stop loss on our General Trades.

In the very short term, the hourly charts are now showing positive momentum, which can support price from falling further. But this quick 100 point correction from 3337 to 3235 has broken many support levels, and rework is needed at each key level like 3250, 3280, 3300.

spx500-futures-hourly-chart-analysis2-27jan2020

Most importantly, the strong uptrend that started on 10th Oct 2019 is at risk currently, unless the futures move above 3280 within this week.

The key support levels on the downside are at 3200 and 3180, but the futures may not go there directly, and there maybe upward spikes. The S&P500 futures will be strong above 3260, and fresh selling pressure will come below 3180. Trades with 10-20 point Stop loss will not work in current conditions of high volatility. Position size needs to be smaller, and Stop loss needs to be wider.

spx500-futures-5hr-chart-analysis2-27jan2020

This is an unforeseen event based correction, and its difficult to predict how much impact it will have. We have to let the big market players decide the market direction in the next 2-3 days, while we observe carefully. We should avoid new trades till we get some clarity. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 24Jan2020

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If you were actively trading SP500 Futures this week, then this post is for you.

Friday’s intraday fall of 56 points in SP500 futures was unexpected and it caught almost everybody by suprise, and it broke many long positions that were created based on the strong bullish move of Thursday, Jan 23. The fall is being attributed to China Coronavirus concerns on global growth, which caused cascading Stop losses on various long positions between 3320 to 3290.

We got a sense of something not going right at 3323-3325 level because the futures should not have come back there today at all! Plus the fact that they did not make a new high today and they could not cross the previous high of 3337, made things bearish at 3325. That’s when we decided to close the ongoing long trade at or near cost price. Some traders who wanted to hold a few long positions with 3300 Stop loss also got hit, and our final Stop loss on all long postions was 3290, which was also hit.

While a retest of 3300 support level was looking possible from the start of the week, a test of 3280 within the same session was not visible. It shows that a significant amount of long positions got hit with Stop loss yesterday.

But the SP500 futures uptrend, which started in Oct 2019, is still intact, and fresh long positions can be created above 3300 for targets of 3330-3350. The support level is at 3370-3380, but we have to be careful, because below 3300, even 3250 level can get tested in the coming week – it depends on the intensity of negative news coming from China.

The futures will rapidly gain strength above 3300, and Traders should consider adding new long positions, plus all the Stop loss positions will also attempt to add back their long positions. Therefore the price recovery above 3300 can be rapid. The range for next week can be 3250 on downside and 3350 on upside. A more likely range would be 3270 to 3330. So, we are seeing 3330 level coming back at least once, and we should aim to use that. Thanks.