S&P500 Technical Analysis – for Week of 18 March 2016
The above weekly chart of S&P500 Emini Futures indicates a triple bottom at 1850, and hence a strong bounce back, which has the strength to go all the way till 2100. We have got 5 green weeks back to back, which is one of the most powerful rallies in recent years. Above 2100, the market opinion will be very divided, and there will be enough people willing to short, and any further advances above 2100 will need good support from strong corporate earnings and global macroeconomics data.
Moving Average Indicator: The market is very BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average. Market trend is UP as long as the S&P500 index is above 2000 level.
Momentum Indicator: Momentum (138) is way above zero, indicating an overbought market. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Look for further evidence of weakness before getting bearish here. Momentum is likely to increase above 2050 on S&P500 index. So avoid short positions above 2050. Continue reading
Hello Folks, the futures closed Feb 29 at 1929 but there are likely to open higher today on March 1st. We had no trade on the last day of Feb. We shall start March from today. Global markets are positive and we had good gains in Asia today.
On the S&P500 futures, there is support at 1930-1940 levels, which can help the futures move up towards 1970 level. In fact our last successful trade was from 1950 to 1968. So this zone has been tested by the market, and once market conditions are suitable, 1970 will be crossed. As of now, the major resistance is around 1990-2000 level. However, the base built over last 2 months (Jan, Feb 2016) can help in going higher IF global market conditions are positive.
This is election year in the US, and we should be prepared to hear high decibel messages, and ongoing references to banking and healthcare industry. There is no new trade as of now, and we will send an update after the US markets start. Thanks.
During the last 5 trading days, volume in S&P500 index put options has lagged volume in call options by 35% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. This is among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last 2 years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors (doesn’t sound good to me because my contra indicator says, this is walking on thin ice till we cross 2135, the previous lifetime high). How long will this upmove last? We will see based on the selling resistance faced at 2120. Technically, this is a Buy zone. 2100 has just been crossed. If it can hold, then 2120, 2135, 2150 can come. Stop Loss on every long trade is 2085. If you want to a very safe trade, then you will have to wait for 2135 to be crossed on closing basis. The Stop loss on those trades would be 2120.
S&P500 Emini Futures have been trading in a tight range between 2080 to 2090 for last several days, with support at 2070. Therefore, as long as 2070 holds, the most likely targets are 2100 and 2120. The trend is up and we should stay long. If for any reason, the index starts falling, then short trades can be started from 2060 with stop loss at 2070. The probability of sudden fall is less because the index has been spending time and consolidating at the current level of 2085, waiting for the Thanksgiving holidays to get over.
Date:Nov 10, 2015 Open=2072.25 High=2079.00 Low=2064.50 Close=2078.10
S&P500 Index is currently in uptrend, after forming a solid double-bottom at 1860-1870 level in early October 2015. The index has come back above 2050-2100 level from where it fell during Aug-Sep 2015. As long as S&P500 Index is above 2000 level, the uptrend remains intact, and we should remain long with futures. Below 2000, longs must be closed immediately, because deep downsides can start. So the major stop loss for all long trades is 2000 on S&P500 Index. Active traders can do long side trades on S&P500 E-mini Futures with 15-20 points as stop loss.