Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 02Mar2018


The futures have bounced back from 2650 this week, and closed above 2673, which is the 20 week SMA. There is clear resistance at 2780 level. The futures are testing lower level support levels of 2600-2650 and recovering from those levels, which is a positive sign. The S&P500 Emini Futures have shown support at 2650 and resistance at 2780 – that’s the trading range for coming week. Many technical indicators are saying that this fall is over, and the market will now prepare for the next upmove towards new highs of 2900-2950 in the coming weeks/months. However, 2600-2650 maybe retested and 2500 can also come if 2600 breaks down. Therefore, any major long positions should be created above 2700 with 2680 as stop loss.

[Bonus Trade] Buy S&P500 Emini Futures at 2670 for Target 2710 with Stop loss 2650.
That’s 40 points gain with 20 point stop loss.

S&500 Futures Weekly Chart – Technical Analysis
Date: Friday, March 02, 2018

Moving Average Indicator: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up. In the short term, the market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average. Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar. In the long term, the market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average. Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bullish, we will not classify it as extremely bullish until the following occurs: price goes above the fast moving average, price goes above the slow moving average.

Bollinger Bands Indicator: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band. Volatility appears to be declining, as evidenced by a decreasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market appears oversold, but may continue to become more oversold before reversing. Look for some price strength before taking any bullish positions based on this indicator.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Indicator: CCI (33) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region. CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (33) is bullish, but has begun showing some weakness. Begin looking for an attractive point to liquidate long positions and return to the sidelines.

RSI Indicator: RSI (54) is in neutral territory. This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone. RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 54). However, this by itself isn’t a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bearish here.

MACD Indicator: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory.

Slow Stochastic Indicator: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line. The long term trend is UP. A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought. However, a down move in SlowK for this bar is a little concerning short term.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is meant solely for the understanding of technical analysis of the S&P500 index futures. It is not meant to provide any investment advice.


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