Following is the S&P500 Futures Monthly Chart over last 10 years from August 2017 to July 2016. The S&P500 index futures have been moving up firmly on the support of a long term trend line since March 2009. Like all trend lines, this trend line will also break one day, and open the way for larger downside. We don’t know when that will happen, so we have to trade with cautious, every time we bounce away from the trend line because there is a strong tendency to revert back to it, which is currently at 1900, or 265 point behind.
On the upside, 2200 is a reliable target, and it can come in August if some major bad news does not come. As mentioned previously on this website, our strategy for year 2016 has to been to stay long above 2000, and that has worked well, and we have 165 points gain on the positional trade, which has been done in several parts over last 4 months. August is a month of high volatility and we have to be cautious.