S&P500 Market Analysis: The S&P500 index futures have been moving up week after week, for the last 10 weeks, which is one of the longest patch of green weeks with gains, without a red week. Traders should watch out for strong resistance at 2580 level. It will not be easy to cross. 2500 is a large long term target for this market, so reversal to 2500 is imminent or just a matter of time. We may do some more long trades while the trend us up, but we should not forget that 2500 can come any day, any week – it is a very real target for this market, and 2500 needs to be tested several times before a sustainable upmove above 2600 can happen.
S&P500 Support Levels: The two key support levels for the S&P500 futures are: 2500 and 2400, which will be useful to absorb minor sell-offs, and 2100 is a strong support that can defend against major sell offs. The long term support for this market is still at 1600, and that is not changing anytime soon. The zone between 1600 and 2100 should good for buying and holding for big gains.
Following is technical analysis using various indicators that we study on weekly basis.
Moving Average Indicator: The futures are consistently staying and closing above their 20 week moving average so the trend is clearly up, so we should be looking for long trades, and buying the dips.
Momentum Indicator: Momentum (152) is above zero, indicating an overbought market. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Given the 45 bar new high here this is even likely. Look for some evidenced weakness before getting too bearish here.
Rate of Change (ROC) Indicator: Rate of Change (6.25) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Given the 45 bar new high here this is even likely. Look for some evidenced weakness before closing long positions here.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Indicator: CCI (160) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region. As mentioned in many previous posts, CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (160) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. The S&P500 index futures just reached a 45 bar new high, which makes it more bullish.
RSI Indicator: RSI (77) is in neutral territory. The RSI indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone. RSI is somewhat overbought at 77, but given the 45 bar new high here, more overbought levels are likely.
MACD Indicator: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory. And, the market just put in a 45 bar new high here. Look for more new highs.
Slow Stochastic Indicator: Its in overbought territory (SlowK is at 98.36). This indicates a possible market drop is coming. The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don’t be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market, in which we are not. Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.
Volume Indicator: The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs. The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP.The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs. However, be careful to avoid buying in an overbought market. RSI or MACD may be helpful here.
Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.
Disclaimer: The above analysis is meant solely for the understanding of technical analysis of the S&P500 index futures. It is not meant to provide any investment advice.