Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 26Mar2017

Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2342.25
It has taken longer to complete my analysis, because the futures have closed at a critical stage, from where the direction can change from long bias to short bias. Such critical levels involve days with 20 point swings on daily basis, which we saw this week.

Summary of my Emini futures analysis is this:
We should be long above 2330, and we should be short below 2330.

This is a slightly long mail but please read it carefully.
The long trade, which started in Nov 2016 (Trump rally) maybe coming to an end now in March 2016, unless futures bounce back above 2360 with a emphatic 20-30 point upmove to close above 2360.

Last few sessions have seen weak upmoves and swift downmoves, showing lack of buyers. While the US Fed gave positive message to markets 10 days back, the failure of Trump Healthcare bill last week is being seen as example of more bill failures in the coming months and market is concerned about it.

The long trade borderline, which was at 2300 earlier, is now at 2330. The market direction is our primary question, and that level is at 2330. What trades we take, what targets we aim for, how many points stop loss we keep, are all secondary questions.

Given how the past week closed with a negative/selling bias, I think 2330 will get tested one of more times in the coming week, and it may also break intraday or for several days. Its difficult to say whether such down moves towards 2330 will come right on Monday morning, or later in the week
after an attempt to cross 2360.

Futures may test both 2320 and 2360 in the coming week.

Its difficult to hold a long trade when the probability of stop loss hit looks high – as in the current case – because the boundary for long trade at 2330 is at risk in the coming week. The futures can bounce from such positions after lower levels are tested successfully, in order to create a good quality a reversal. Therefore, I am still evaluating the options, and will mail you back later today. Thanks.

Here is an Optional/Tactical trade [Bonus Trade]
“Sell Emini Futures at 2348 for Target 2330, and Stop loss 2360”

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