Tag Archives: SP500 Trend

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 11Oct2019

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are currently at 2978.00
Today’s Range: 2941.25 – 2993.00

The futures have made a big move today after creating a good base in the last two days. Today’s upmove is looking reliable coming on the back of a very good setup made in the last 2 days. But we have a weekend coming up, which has a tendency to create gap-ups and gap-downs by Monday morning, so I am analyzing our next long trade here.

spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis-11oct2019

Please Note: There is a major resistance currently at 2976.
We need daily closing above 2880 for clean upmove to 3020-3030 level.
That will be a reliable long trade.

spx500-futures-5hr-chart-analysis-11oct2019

Our S&P500 Trading Strategy has been to stay long and buy all corrections above 2850 level, and that has given good gains in the last 3 months.

[Bonus Trade]
Buy at 3000, for Target 3023, with Stop loss 2980″.

Market Notes:

  • The futures were volatile in the early part of this week and on 8th Oct 2019, the futures suddenly dipped below 2890 from 2920-2930 levels in pre- market around midnight UK time, thereby taking out the stops of most traders in the market, and then bounced back to 2920 levels before market open.
  • We were in the market at night on 8th Oct, and saw this live, and quickly bought futures at 2885-2890 levels with 2850 Stop loss, and were able to sell them after 5 hours at 2920-2925 levels, all of this in pre-market trading! But those are high speed, dynamic trades with 50-50 chance of success, which can’t be used as General Trades for all traders based in different locations and time zones.
  • Our larger traders who do Optional Trades with 1-2 contracts (and General Trades with with full volume of Emini contracts), could use our default trade at 2900 once again this week. Our default trade since Aug 2019 has been: “Buy at 2900 for target 2930 with Stop 2880”.

Next Steps: Today is looking a clear case of S&P500 Breakout Trading. There is no immediate trade as of now, but please stay alert because a new trade may come if 2880 is crossed successfully today on closing basis. Thanks!

End of Day Update: The futures went up till 2993 and were trading above 2980 most of the day, but could not close above the major resistance of 2976! This creates fresh downside possibility of retest of 2950 next week, but the upside target of 3000+ can also come in the next 1-2 weeks. So we should aim to buy the corrections with a stop loss of 2930. Its good that we did not buy at 2985-2990 levels during the day otherwise our stop loss would have got hit by end of day. Now we just have to select a fresh entry point for taking a long position next week.

Following is the weekly chart of the S&P500 futures. The last two weeks have shown strong defense of lower levels below 2900 and it has set up the stage for testing 3000-3050 levels. Thanks.

spx500-futures-weekly-chart-analysis-11oct2019

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 30Sep2019

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 Futures are currently at 2983. This is a complex congestion zone between 2950 and 2980, where the futures are trying to form a base for upmove above 3000 but they have been failing to do that.

Our S&P500 Futures Trading Strategy is to stay long above 2980 for target 3080, with 2960 as the stop. Given the red candle of last week, there is weakness which needs decisive confrontation and that will be possible by two daily closings above 3000.

spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis1-30sep2019spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis2-30sep2019

spx500-futures-hourly-chart-analysis-30sep2019

spx500-futures-hourly-chart-analysis1-30sep2019

The 200 SMA line on the hourly chart is at 2990, which is the current main resistance level. So the futures will continue to face resistance between 2990-3000 level, like last week. Only above 3000, we will see better buying strength.

[Bonus Trade] Buy at 3000 for Target 3023 with Stop loss 2980.

Please Note: Below 2960, downsides will open up all the way down till 2900 and 2880 level. So 2960 should be the absolute stop loss for all long positions in S&P500 Futures.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 18Sep2019

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spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis-18sep2019

The S&P500 Emini futures are currently at 3002, and today and tomorrow will see higher volatility after the announcements by the US Fed on their latest interest rate policy and economic outlook. The market has already priced in 25 basis points (0.25 percent) rate cut.

There are two scenarios for S&P500 movement over next 24 hours (eod today and tomorrow). (a) If the rate cut does come at 25 bps, then there is a chance of profit taking after the US Fed announcement, which can take the futures back to their support level of 2960. (b) If the rate cut does not come, then 2960 will surely be tested and maybe also a lower level like 2900-2920. So in both scenarios, there maybe some price correction. Therefore, Traders should keep light positions to avoid whipsaw moves that can hit stop loss on both upside and downside.

If there is something in the Fed announcement, which indicates increasing strength in the US economy, then market can move up. A clear long trade is possible above 3033.

[Bonus Trade]
Buy at 3033 for Target 3063 with Stop loss 3013

At the current level, both long and short trades can create profits. Any sell trade should be attempted below 2960, which currently a strong support for S&P500 futures.

 

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 15Sep2019

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spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis-15sep2019

Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are currently at 3008, as of closing on Friday. The main event for the coming week is the US Fed interest rate announcement and economic outlook. The next main move will happen after that. There is a large supply disruption in crude oil due to accident in Saudi Arabia, but it is not likely to impact the S&P500 much as of now.

The S&P500 index trend is up, and we should be looking to take only long trades. The above chart shows the key support and resistance levels for S&P500 Emini futures.2960 should be the stop loss for all long positions and we can see sharp correction below 2960.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 05Sep2019

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are currently at 2980.00
The futures have finally broken out of their month long range today!
The day high so far is 2986. They may retest 2973 during the day.

Our standing trade has been to buy at 2900 for target 2930 with stop 2800.
This trade triggered once again earlier this week, and also closed
successfully, giving 30 points gains in that default/standing trade, which we will take as Trade#1 of Sep2019.

The trend is clearly up after the latest breakout today, and our Emini Futures Trading Strategy for Sep 2019 is to stay long above 2950. There is a good chance of hitting 3000 by end September, as a result of the successful breakout. So we will aim to take up another long trade above 2970 for target 3000. The exact trade has been sent out to the Trading Group.

Please Note: Unless otherwise stated, all trades are with 5 Micros, or half Emini contract. This size looks good for capturing the market opportunities with enough gains, while reducing market risk per position into half compared to the Emini futures contract. Thanks.