Tag Archives: SP500 Trading Strategy

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 15Jan2020

Posted on by

The S&P500 Futures are looking ready to cross 3300 level.
Above 3300, the immediate upside target will be 3320-3330.
Traders can use 3275 or 3280 as the Stop loss on long trades.

spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis2-15jan2020

The support nearest level is at 3275, which was the level from which the futures bounced back on Tuesday, 14 Jan 2020 and the futures stayed above this level today, while trying to move higher, and made a new life time high of 3299.

SP500 Trend is clearly up, and traders should only do long trades.
However, the momentum is coming down, which may create resistance for upmove.

spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis1-15jan2020

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 14Jan2020

Posted on by

EOD Update, 14 Jan 2010
Please see the image below. It’s the 1 minute chart of SP500 futures, and it happened about 5-10 minutes after my previous mail, which was sent at 3294.25, and the futures tanked from 3294.75. Please see how 10 points were gone in just 2 minutes, and about 20 points were gone in 35-40 minutes. That’s why I was saying that the market conditions can become volatile rapidly, and we have to be very cautious at current levels, and preserve the gains we have already made in Jan 2020.

spx500-futures-1min-chart-analysis1-14jan2020

Could such a swift correction be anticipated and captured? Not really. Most traders and trading systems can’t catch such swift corrections, and we are better off watching it from the sidelines, and waiting for a better trading opportunity.

As mentioned earlier, this market can get volatile rapidly in current conditions, because of the heavy built up of speculative Call Options on the SP500.

Please see the daily chart below, with CCI indicator plotted on it. The daily chart is showing weakening momentum, which means further price rise will face resistance.

spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis3-14jan2020

A positive outcome of today’s correction is that it has revealed that the current support level is at 3270-3275. So any long trade will need this as Stop loss. A clear long trade may emerge above 3290-3295. We must be very selective and cautious in any new trades.

Our Emini Futures Trading Strategy is to wait for clarity in the daily charts, and take long trades after corrections, or above 3300, which will be a fresh breakout on the upside and it can give 20-30 points. Thanks.

[Bonus Trade]
Buy at 3300 for Target 3320 with Stop loss 3280.

——————————————————————
Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3294.25
Today’s Range: 3275.50 – 3296.50

The futures are heading towards 3300, and 3320 is also possible, but the setup is not giving a clear trade. So are watching for a suitable setup for a long trade.

Please note that the current market is significantly overbought with the highest call option activity ever for SPY (the S&P500 ETF), so we have to be very careful here, because volatility can increase rapidly here, and even a 20-point stop loss will be gone within minutes. So we must wait and watch for a better quality setup. 3280 is a support as of now, in the near term, but it can’t hold any bigger selling.

All our Optional Trades have also completed at 3280, and there is no new trade of any type as of now. I will share some more notes later today. Thanks.

Please Note: The latest daily chart indicates that we can get a quick correction of 30-40 points below 3275, and momentum is also turning down, which will make it difficult for reliable upside move. We have to wait and see how the futures navigate the 3300 level.

spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis2-14jan2020

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 09Jan2020

Posted on by

Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3274.00
Today’s Range: 3257.50 – 3274.50

After the very big green day yesterday by S&P500 futures, which hit new highs, we were expecting some more follow up action today, and that is playing out as expected. The futures are heading towards our target 3280, which may come later today. So the upside room at current level is looking about 10 points more and we may get some resistance or selling pressure at 3280 level. 3300 is also possible by end of Friday, if 3280 can be crossed with strength.

S&P500 Futures Technical Analysis shows that the nearest support level is between 3240-3250, and next major support is at 3220. So any new long trade here will need a wide Stop loss. So we will wait and watch. We already have Optional Trades with targets of 3278 and 3280, but there is no new General Trade as of now.

The S&P500 trend is clearly up, as we have been saying for last several weeks. Our Emini Futures Trading Strategy is to buy on corrections. All corrections have been strong buying opportunities. The weekly chart of S&P500 futures is looking bullish, with the ability to cross 3300 without any difficulty in the coming week. Thanks.

[Bonus Trade]
Traders can buy on corrections near 3260 for Target 3290 with Stop loss 3230.

spx500-futures-hourly-chart-analysis-09jan2020

spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis1-09jan2020

spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis2-09jan2020

spx500-futures-weekly-chart-analysis-09jan2020

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 08Jan2020

Posted on by

—————————————————————
Date and Time: Wed, January 8, 2020 4:13 pm, New York Time
—————————————————————
Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3258.50
Today’s Range: 3181.50 – 3267.50

The futures went up till 3267.50 today, and profit taking has come towards end of the day, and futures have come down to 3258. Today’s candlestick pattern on S&P500 futures is very rare. It is super bullish, but it is coming after a very good rally in last 8 weeks, so I have to study the entire market setup carefully tonight.

Overall, the setup is bullish above 3200, and 3220 is the main support level on the downside. The futures may try to test 3280 in the next 1-2 days. There is no new General Trade for now. Let me first complete my analysis of the current setup. I will mail you tomorrow morning with updates. Thanks.

—————————————————————
Date and Time: Wed, January 8, 2020 1:37 pm, New York Time
—————————————————————
Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3257.50
Today’s Range: 3181.50 – 3261.50

With S&P500 futures breaking below 3200, various negative scenarios were looking possible (that’s why the futures fell below 3200 in the first place!). So it was a lot of analysis effort last night (almost a night out) to decide the plan for today, but in the end it has paid off very well!! Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 30Dec2019

Posted on by

Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3228.50
Today’s Range (so far): 3217.50 – 3244.25

For the last 10 days, we have been seeing weakness in momentum indicators, while price was moving up, and that was not a reliable setup at all. Since 27th Dec 2019, the futures hit a high of 3553 and started correcting, in line with the weakness in short term daily momentum.

sp500-daily-chart-analysis-30dec2019

In the daily chart below, we have we can see that the 20 day moving average has not been tested in a while now, so there probably at testing of that support level coming up in the next 1-2 weeks. If it holds, we will see next leg of the rally, and if it fails, where we may see correction till 3100 level. We have to be cautious below the 20 day moving average.

sp500-daily-chart-analysis1-30dec2019

But today is 30th Dec 2019, and we have far more important things at hand!! Unless we have a 50-100 points move tomorrow on 31st Dec 2019, the following yearly chart of S&P500 index will look the same at the end of year 2019. This is a very valuable chart, because it gets drawn only once per year, at the year end! So please save this post.

sp500-yearly-chart-analysis1-30dec2019

S&P500 Futures Technical Analysis – on Yearly chart:

  • The above chart has trend line analysis of the S&P500 index yearly chart, and we see a strong band of support between 2600-2800, which should provide support during any major sell off, if it happens.
  • The two white arrows indicate the two important support levels for year 2020, and they are: 3000 and 2700.
    • 3000 is the anchor for the current upmove, and please remember that 3020 acted as a major resistance for several months, and now that is a major support. Regular market weakness will not be able to break 3000 level.
    • 2700 is the dire straits, deep low for the S&P500 for year 2020. 2740 is a major support level. It may not come at all. If it comes, it must be used for buying with a reasonable stop loss.
  • The battleground in year 2020 will be between 2900-3000 level, because if that zone is defended successfully, then new highs can come high reliability and without a sell off at the new higher levels.
  • Below 3000, the futures will search for support and we will see big swings and higher volatility, like what we saw in May 2019 around 2700 level, and Aug 2019 around 2800 level.
  • 3000 is the most important level for 2020. It is likely to get tested at least once, if not a couple of times. Above 3000, the S&P500 is in strong uptrend.
    • 3370 is upside Target#1 for 2020. It will come for sure, maybe within Q1,2020.
    • 3480 is upside Target#2 for 2020. It will come for sure. Whether it comes without a correction to 3000, or after a correction to 3000, is not clear yet.
    • 3600 is upside Target#3 for 2020. The path for this target is not clear yet. We will deal with it in real time.

Our S&P500 Emini Futures Trading Strategy for year 2020 is to constantly look for long trades – those are the winning trades, and the market has rewarded our view again and again! Our default trading strategy will be stay long above 3000 level, with a 20 point stop loss at 2980. This trade worked multiple times in year 2019 as well.

Overall, we can expect a green year in 2020, given the quality of the yearly setup. Because 2020 is also US Presidential Election Year, lots of noise will be there, and it can create volatility during the year. We should use such corrections to buy.

Please remember that America is much much bigger than any individual or group of individuals. The enterprising and hard working nature of American people (and also the bright people worldwide, because about 50 percent of S&P500 sales and income are now coming from outside the USA) is at the core of the S&P500 index rally over last 60 years. The growth of S&P500 is not dependent on anyone, and its growth can not be stopped, even if it’s blocked with hurdles briefly. It is important to remember this point even more during a market downturn, than during a nice green rally. I have learned over the last 15 years that we get best trading results by just focusing on the price action of S&P500 futures (daily and weekly charts), rather than business news media -because they have no commitment to get you profits, but I have. Hence this post!

Even if you are not a member/subscriber of our Trading Group, you can still benefit from the regular posts with S&P500 futures analysis, market direction, and bonus trades, which are published often, to help everyone visiting our website. Thanks.
Wishing you Happy New Year 2020!