Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 04Mar2020

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The S&P500 futures closed at 3114. It was a big green day, after a big red day. These are all indicative of the market trying to adjust itself. A retest of 200 day moving avg (3068) is sure to come tomorrow, 5th March. Traders should take profits around 3100 and wait for lower levels like 3050 to consider a new trade. 3050 should provide short term support, but 2970 is the real support on the downside.

Major resistance on the upside is at 3150, and major support on the downside is at 2850. So there is a 300 point band, in which the futures can decide their direction.

Our Emini Futures Trading Strategy is to be care careful, and take very few trades after careful observation. The market has not yet stabilized, so our position size must be small, to avoid sudden large loss.

[Bonus Trade]
Sell at 3090 for Target 3040 with Stop loss 3120.

This trade can give 50 points gain for 30 points risk. Unfortunately, in current market conditions, we can’t do any real trade with less than 30 point stop loss. 10-20 points are going away rapidly as if they are nothing. And support and resistance levels are also widely placed, as the S&P500 index is trying to navigate this period of high volatility.

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Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 28Feb2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures have closed at 2989.25
Today’s Range: 2854.50 – 2995.50

It was another wild day in the market, and 2850 level got tested intraday.
Just last week, the futures hit 3395 (nearly 3400) and to see 2850 level
was almost unreal experience, with 550 points fall in 1 week.

But today’s closing on both S&P500 Emini futures (ES) and Nasdaq Emini
futures (NQ) is encouraging. Its the first time in last 8 days that the
futures showed some strength, and today’s price action by end of the day
was very good. I almost forgot that the futures can move up with strength,
because for last one week, the futures were unable to break out of even
minor intraday negative patterns, which the futures usually take out in
within 1-2 attempts. By end of today, the futures have shown strength.

The immediate upside target for S&P500 futures is 3050-3060, which is the
200 day simple moving average (SMA), but its difficult to create a trade
with a Stop loss, because the futures can fall 50-100 points and then go
up. The only tested support currently is 2850, which is 140 points below,
very far away. And 20-30 point stop loss won’t work in current market.

There are a couple of Optional Trades that I am evaluating.
(a) Buy at 3010 for Target 3060 with Stop loss 2950
(b) Buy at 2970 for Target 3060 with Stop loss 2920

I will try to construct an Optional Trade and share with you by tomorrow
evening, after completing my market analysis. Thanks. Continue reading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 27Feb2020

Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 2937.00
The futures have lost 400 points or nearly 12% in last 6 days.
Its like a free fall, which I have not seen in the last 20 years.

This was my mail last Friday, Feb 21, when the futures were at 3339.
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“Just fyi, the major support is currently at 3320, and that’s also our absolute stop loss for any long trade, because below 3320, the uptrend will break, and volatility will spike up, so we will just step aside below 3320.”
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This has played out exactly as expected, but the magnitude of this correction is mind numbing. Nothing in my analysis or trading systems could predict this sharp one-way downmove of 400 points, along with a few 50-80 point pullbacks along the way, to close most of the short positions too. Continue reading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 21Feb2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3357.25
Today’s Range (so far): 3345.00 – 3369.00

S&P500 Futures Technical Analysis: The futures are trying to find support below 3350 and have bounced back from 3345 early today morning, and the momentum indicators reversing from lower levels, which is a positive sign. At the same time, the futures are facing resistance at 3360. The futures are likely to go up and retest 3375-3380, where there is major resistance. So, we can use this fact to get back into long trade in a small way, because we have already exited at 3380 in the previous trade.

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Our S&P500 Futures Trading Strategy is to stay long above 3340, which is was the reversal point yesterday. So we will continue to buy the corrections, which has worked successfully in the entire uptrend since Oct 2019. The absolute stop loss on all long trades is 3320, below which the uptrend will break. The next major target is 3420, which is still on. Continue reading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 11Feb2020

Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3360.00
The futures broke out of 3340 resistance after market hours yesterday and moved up till 3374, and corrected back to 3360 by end of day.

These days, we are seeing the exact opposite in Feb 2020 compared to Aug 2019. In Aug 2019, we had constant selling and gap downs in after market, and now we are seeing constant gap up in after market. But then, Aug 2019 was the low point in that market cycle, so is this a near term top? We have to be careful.

As mentioned in previous mails, above 3300, the upside target of 3350-3360 is there, but it was not a reliable path because of the resistance at 3340. That’s why we didn’t do a new Optional Trade for target 3360. We have no new trade as of now. Continue reading