Tag Archives: SP500 Trading Strategy

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 27May2020

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The S&P500 futures are currently at 2976.00 and down by 60 points from day high.

Today is the second day of the S&P500 futures trading around the 3000 level, which is also their 200 day moving average. Our tactical trading target of 3030 was hit today morning, and the futures went up till about 3035 and then faced a sharp 70 points correction from there to 2965.

The parabolic upmove of today morning got broken and the entire upmove of today got liquidated. Please see the charts below. The warning sign for a reversal of the entire upmove can once the parabola was broken below 3030, and the futures fell down till 2965!!

spx500-futures-1min-chart-analysis1-27may2020

spx500-futures-1min-chart-analysis2-27may2020

spx500-futures-1min-chart-analysis3-27may2020

All this part of the 200 DMA testing at 3000 level. Nobody should expect a smooth run away rally from this very key level. This 3000 level is a major target, and also major resistance, when we are approaching it from below.

The S&P500 (or SPY) call options data indicated very high call options build up, which is usually not helpful for fresh upmove at key levels. So traders must be cautious here. Please keep 2950 as stop loss for any long position.

spx500-futures-30min-chart-analysis1-27may2020

[Bonus Trade] Here’s a rapid tactical trade, for a bounce back.
Buy SP500 futures at 2975 for Target 2995 with Stop loss 2960.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 11May2020

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spx500-futures-30min-chart-analysis1-11may2020

Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini Futures are currently at 2937. They have moved up further after the end of day upmove on Friday, when they closed above 2920. The futures have hit 2940 early today morning.

There is a short term resistance around 2940 level, as you can see in the above chart (black line). The parabolic uptrend has also broken in the short term (gray line). So, we have to wait and watch for next few hours.

spx500-futures-30min-chart-analysis2-11may2020

The above chart shows how the resistance at 2940 prevailed and the futures went down till 2890, a correction of 50 points.

The S&P500 futures trend is up above 2830, and 2880 is a critical level.

Our S&P500 Emini Futures Trading Strategy is to stay long above 2880, and exit all long positions below 2880. Meanwhile, 2900 can be used as a stop loss for most long trades, or for creating new long trades with 2880 as Stop loss.

[Bonus Trade#1] Buy at 2920 for Target 2960 with Stop loss 2900
Trade Result: Stop loss hit.

[Bonus Trade#2] Buy at 2900 for Target 2950 with Stop loss 2880
Trade Result: Trade in progress.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 29Apr2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 2934.00
Today’s Range (so far): 2870.75 – 2935.25

The futures have bounced back today after hitting our Stop loss at 2880 yesterday, during the unexpected 70 point fall from 2913 till 2851.

Unfortunately, our carefully selected General Trade hit 20 points stop loss yesterday (though it was with only 20% position size). And now the futures have gone up and hit 2930, the target we had for that trade. It
feels bad to be in that situation. In normal markets, we may have bought back the futures 20 points below stop loss to reestablish the positions, but the current market can go anywhere rapidly, so we could not take that risk.

2880 is the critical level and the futures bounced above it in early morning trade. Near-term targets are 2930, 2950 and 3000, but the volatility is still high to do a General Trade. In addition, the US Fed meeting notes will come today, which can move the futures rapidly up/down. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 01Apr2020

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spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis-01apr2020

Hi, the S&P500 futures are at 2459.00, down 110 points or -4.30%
Today’s Range: 2453.50 – 2563.00

The futures were at 2611 when I mailed you yesterday,
and mentioned this in the market levels.
“- Safety will start above 2650 (we are almost there!)”

But the futures could not even go near 2650!
They reached 2635 and started facing selling pressure, and they are now below 2460, down 170 points since yesterday’s high. Its not hard for the futures to move up/down 30 points in the current market conditions with high volatility, but they could not even approach 2650 yesterday. It means the market is not yet ready for become safe and stable, which means more correction, till we get better conditions. In regular market conditions, the S&P500 futures can stay flat for a couple of days, but that’s not possible now. If the market can’t go up, it has go do down without any waiting. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 24Mar2020

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spx500-futures-daily-chart-analysis1-24mar2020

Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures closed at 2380.00
Today’s Range: 2216.00 – 2387.75

It has been a week since the last mail, but we were all watching the unprecedented volatility in the futures. Trading in such conditions is like going into a tsunami with a raft, and there is no positive outcome possible without taking sizeable risk. And that’s not possible in the structure of this service, where we want to take trades with upto 20
points stop loss. In the current conditions, any trade with less than 50 points stop loss
does not have any chance.

Key Levels for S&P500 Futures trading:

  • Basic stability will start above 2500.
  • Safety will start above 2800.
  • Reliable trades with low volatility will come above 3000.

The futures are very likely to test 2500 this week, on the back of the stimulus package being planned by the US Govt. Currently at 2380. So 130 points upside is visible, but downside can be 100-150 points, which makes it very difficult to capture it as a futures trade. Continue reading →