The S&P500 futures have recovered from the sharp correction earlier this week on Tuesday, and our pre-defined long trade started at 4200 today morning, and the target of 4228 was also achieved today itself. Above 4200, there was a fresh breakout today and it was a top quality setup for a long trade, and it delivered strong gains.This was our first trade of May month, and it was successfully completed within the same day of starting.
Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are 3048.50
Today’s Range: 3003.50 – 3087.25
The futures had a 230+ point cut in the last 48 hours, falling from 3230 to 2996. In hindsight, our target of 3230 on the General Trade turned out to be the market top, and we were fortunate with that, and even on the next Optional Trade, which also completed successfully.
The following Optional Trade (for Traders with 10+ contracts) was completed successfully with 24 points gain before weakness started creeping in on Wednesday, 10th June.
“Buy 1-2 contracts at 3196 for Target 3220 with Stop loss 3180”
Now, the volatility is high, and we don’t have a General Trade. But we are seeing upside of 3175-3180 currently, though it will be tricky to capture.
[Bonus Trade] Suitable for larger traders with a small part of capital.
“Buy at 3050 for Target 3175 with Stop loss 3000”
Market Notes and Analysis:
As indicated in previous mails, the S&P500 futures have a major resistance at 3250and we need a monthly closing above 3250 for this resistance to be taken out. The S&P500 futures tried to do that in Jan-Feb 2020 but could not succeed, and faced a big penalty for failure to cross that key hurdle.
In addition, the overall Total Equity Put/Call ratio was at an extreme low by Wednesday, 10th June, which indicated significantly one-sided bullish bets piling up in the system, which would not make it easy to cross the 3250 resistance. So, the meltdown of yesterday was very much a technical correction, and its also aimed to test the support at 3000 level.
Overall, traders have to be cautious at current levels and wait for confirmation that 3000 level (200 DMA is 3020) is getting defended, because the real big selling pressure will come below 3000. Thanks.
Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 2733.00
Today’s Range: 2717.50 – 2832.50
The S&P500 futures have corrected by over 100 points since yesterday, and not in a straight line, so many stop losses of all kinds of trades have been taken out. Below 2700, the risks will rise rapidly.
Market sentiment has got badly broken, and Volatility has spiked up in last 24 hours because of the crash in Crude Oil futures – they went into negative rates, which is like a penalty for Crude Oil production, and its the first time we have seen anything like this in any major asset.
This Crude Oil futures crash has caused huge losses to all market participants, because Crude Oil/Energy is present as direct or indirect investments in all major funds and investment portfolios.
This article summarizes it well.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-zero-dollars-barrel-futures-coronavirus-crude-negative-shock-071138527.html
Btw, today April 21 is 2 months since Feb 21, when the major correction started in the markets. Most corrections don’t last longer than 2 months, but this one is very different in its nature because of the pandemic. We will remain cautious, because the market conditions are very rough.
Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3022.00 (in after market trading). The futures went down till 2996 during the day, falling from a high of 3114, which was yesterday’s closing. So today was another 100 point down day, with two 50 points spikes, to take out stop losses of all kinds of traders. That’s why this market is best avoided till it stabilizes.
All this up/down movement is to test the 200 day moving avg, which is currently at 3068. Major resistance on the upside is at 3150, and major support on the downside is at 2850. So there is a large 300 point band, in which the futures can decide their daily direction.
In current market conditions, we can’t do any real trade with less than 30 point stop loss. 20 points are going away rapidly in 5-10 minutes as if they are nothing. And support and resistance levels are also wide apart, as the S&P500 index is trying to navigate this period of high volatility.
[Bonus Trade]
Buy at 3020 for Target 3068 with Stop loss 2990.
Our S&P500 Futures Trading Strategy is to be very careful, and take very few trades after careful observation. The market has not yet stabilized, so our position size must be small, to avoid sudden losses. Thanks.
Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3343.00
Today’s Range: 3322.25 – 3357.00
The futures broke out of the 3330-3340 resistance zone last evening, during after market hours, and raced up till 3357.
“But the uptrend is also in good momentum, and we have target of 3350-3360”
— The above target came during after market hours, and a few active traders could use it for making fresh gains. In our own trading accounts, 3353 target got executed but orders placed at 3358 got missed by a point.
Optional Trade update:
“Buy at 3333 for Target 3353 with Stop loss 3213.”
The above trade given yesterday after market hours, did not execute at 3333 yesterday evening, because the futures were moving around 3335, and then took off for 20 point upmove to 3355, within 5-10 minutes of my mail. In other words, by the time the trade was visible to us, it also became visible to many other traders and trading algorithms! A few nimble traders were able to buy during this upmove between 3335-3340 and sell at 3353, with 10-15 points gain.
If you have bought at 3333 today morning with limit buy order, then please exit at current price of 3343, with 10 points gain, because this is not the same trade of yesterday, because the 3353 target has already been hit. We have no new trade as of now, and will mail you again later with market analysis. Thanks.