Tag Archives: sp500 futures trading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 12June2020

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sp500-futures-30min-chart-analysis-12jun2020
Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are 3048.50
Today’s Range: 3003.50 – 3087.25

The futures had a 230+ point cut in the last 48 hours, falling from 3230 to 2996. In hindsight, our target of 3230 on the General Trade turned out to be the market top, and we were fortunate with that, and even on the next Optional Trade, which also completed successfully.

The following Optional Trade (for Traders with 10+ contracts) was completed successfully with 24 points gain before weakness started creeping in on Wednesday, 10th June.
“Buy 1-2 contracts at 3196 for Target 3220 with Stop loss 3180”

Now, the volatility is high, and we don’t have a General Trade. But we are seeing upside of 3175-3180 currently, though it will be tricky to capture.

[Bonus Trade] Suitable for larger traders with a small part of capital.
“Buy at 3050 for Target 3175 with Stop loss 3000”

Market Notes and Analysis:
As indicated in previous mails, the S&P500 futures have a major resistance at 3250and we need a monthly closing above 3250 for this resistance to be taken out. The S&P500 futures tried to do that in Jan-Feb 2020 but could not succeed, and faced a big penalty for failure to cross that key hurdle.

In addition, the overall Total Equity Put/Call ratio was at an extreme low by Wednesday, 10th June, which indicated significantly one-sided bullish bets piling up in the system, which would not make it easy to cross the 3250 resistance. So, the meltdown of yesterday was very much a technical correction, and its also aimed to test the support at 3000 level.

Overall, traders have to be cautious at current levels and wait for confirmation that 3000 level (200 DMA is 3020) is getting defended, because the real big selling pressure will come below 3000. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 21Apr2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 2733.00
Today’s Range: 2717.50 – 2832.50

The S&P500 futures have corrected by over 100 points since yesterday, and not in a straight line, so many stop losses of all kinds of trades have been taken out. Below 2700, the risks will rise rapidly.

Market sentiment has got badly broken, and Volatility has spiked up in last 24 hours because of the crash in Crude Oil futures – they went into negative rates, which is like a penalty for Crude Oil production, and its the first time we have seen anything like this in any major asset.

This Crude Oil futures crash has caused huge losses to all market participants, because Crude Oil/Energy is present as direct or indirect investments in all major funds and investment portfolios.

This article summarizes it well.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-zero-dollars-barrel-futures-coronavirus-crude-negative-shock-071138527.html

Btw, today April 21 is 2 months since Feb 21, when the major correction started in the markets. Most corrections don’t last longer than 2 months, but this one is very different in its nature because of the pandemic. We will remain cautious, because the market conditions are very rough.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 05Mar2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3022.00 (in after market trading). The futures went down till 2996 during the day, falling from a high of 3114, which was yesterday’s closing. So today was another 100 point down day, with two 50 points spikes, to take out stop losses of all kinds of traders. That’s why this market is best avoided till it stabilizes.

All this up/down movement is to test the 200 day moving avg, which is currently at 3068. Major resistance on the upside is at 3150, and major support on the downside is at 2850. So there is a large 300 point band, in which the futures can decide their daily direction.

In current market conditions, we can’t do any real trade with less than 30 point stop loss. 20 points are going away rapidly in 5-10 minutes as if they are nothing. And support and resistance levels are also wide apart, as the S&P500 index is trying to navigate this period of high volatility.

[Bonus Trade]
Buy at 3020 for Target 3068 with Stop loss 2990.

Our S&P500 Futures Trading Strategy is to be very careful, and take very few trades after careful observation. The market has not yet stabilized, so our position size must be small, to avoid sudden losses. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 06Feb2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3343.00
Today’s Range: 3322.25 – 3357.00
The futures broke out of the 3330-3340 resistance zone last evening, during after market hours, and raced up till 3357.

“But the uptrend is also in good momentum, and we have target of 3350-3360”
— The above target came during after market hours, and a few active traders could use it for making fresh gains. In our own trading accounts, 3353 target got executed but orders placed at 3358 got missed by a point.

Optional Trade update:
“Buy at 3333 for Target 3353 with Stop loss 3213.”

The above trade given yesterday after market hours, did not execute at 3333 yesterday evening, because the futures were moving around 3335, and then took off for 20 point upmove to 3355, within 5-10 minutes of my mail. In other words, by the time the trade was visible to us, it also became visible to many other traders and trading algorithms! A few nimble traders were able to buy during this upmove between 3335-3340 and sell at 3353, with 10-15 points gain.

If you have bought at 3333 today morning with limit buy order, then please exit at current price of 3343, with 10 points gain, because this is not the same trade of yesterday, because the 3353 target has already been hit. We have no new trade as of now, and will mail you again later with market analysis. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 24Jan2020

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spx500-futures-30min-chart-analysis5-24jan2020

If you were actively trading SP500 Futures this week, then this post is for you.

Friday’s intraday fall of 56 points in SP500 futures was unexpected and it caught almost everybody by suprise, and it broke many long positions that were created based on the strong bullish move of Thursday, Jan 23. The fall is being attributed to China Coronavirus concerns on global growth, which caused cascading Stop losses on various long positions between 3320 to 3290.

We got a sense of something not going right at 3323-3325 level because the futures should not have come back there today at all! Plus the fact that they did not make a new high today and they could not cross the previous high of 3337, made things bearish at 3325. That’s when we decided to close the ongoing long trade at or near cost price. Some traders who wanted to hold a few long positions with 3300 Stop loss also got hit, and our final Stop loss on all long postions was 3290, which was also hit.

While a retest of 3300 support level was looking possible from the start of the week, a test of 3280 within the same session was not visible. It shows that a significant amount of long positions got hit with Stop loss yesterday.

But the SP500 futures uptrend, which started in Oct 2019, is still intact, and fresh long positions can be created above 3300 for targets of 3330-3350. The support level is at 3370-3380, but we have to be careful, because below 3300, even 3250 level can get tested in the coming week – it depends on the intensity of negative news coming from China.

The futures will rapidly gain strength above 3300, and Traders should consider adding new long positions, plus all the Stop loss positions will also attempt to add back their long positions. Therefore the price recovery above 3300 can be rapid. The range for next week can be 3250 on downside and 3350 on upside. A more likely range would be 3270 to 3330. So, we are seeing 3330 level coming back at least once, and we should aim to use that. Thanks.