Looking at the S&P 500 E-mini (ES) on the weekly timeframe as of March 5, 2026, we are seeing the first significant cracks in the “four-peat” bull market thesis. After closing 2025 at approximately 6,845, the first nine weeks of 2026 have been a battle to maintain that momentum.
At the current price of 6,795, here is the structural breakdown:
Most Important Point: We’re below 20 Week SMA — that’s an alarm. ES futures are safe only above 6880. Be careful now.
1. Weekly Trend Structure: The “Tired” Bull
The primary trend remains bullish on the macro scale (the 4-year cycle from 2023), but the weekly chart is showing a Lower High for the first time in months.
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The 7,043 Peak: This late-January print now stands as a major “blow-off top” candidate on the weekly scale. We saw high volume on that rejection, suggesting institutional distribution.
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Weekly Candle Action: We are currently tracking a series of “Long-Legged Dojis” and “Hanging Man” patterns over the last three weeks. This indicates extreme indecision at these elevated valuations, especially with the $84+ Crude Oil headwind.
2. Key Weekly Moving Averages
Since we’ve spent most of 2025 in a vertical climb, the moving averages are struggling to keep up, creating a significant “mean reversion” risk:
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10-Week EMA (~6,810): We are currently trading below the 10-week Exponential Moving Average. This is a critical short-term red flag; historically, when the ES loses the 10-week EMA, it often leads to a multi-month consolidation or a deeper 5-7% correction.
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50-Week SMA (~6,420): This is the “Grand Magnet.” If the current geopolitical-driven inflation fears persist, a pullback to the 50-week SMA (roughly 5% lower from here) would be the most logical spot for long-term trend followers to re-engage.
3. Weekly Indicators
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Weekly RSI: It has finally retreated from the “Extreme Overbought” zone (>80) seen in December and is now hovering at 58. This is a “cooling off” signal. However, there is a bearish divergence—while price made a higher high in January (relative to Nov ’25), the RSI made a lower high, suggesting the buying pressure is exhausting.
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MACD: We are on the verge of a Weekly Bearish Cross. If the histogram flips negative by the end of this Friday, it would be the first sell signal on this timeframe since the brief dip in Q3 2025.
Weekly Summary & Targets
The weekly chart suggests we are entering a Stage 3 Distribution Phase. The market is no longer in a “buy-everything” mode; it’s picking its spots.
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Weekly Bull Case: Reclaim and close the week above 6,850 to negate the bearish candle sequence and re-open the path to 7,000.
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Weekly Bear Case: A weekly close below 6,730 (the February floor) would likely trigger a fast liquidation down to the 6,550 level, which aligns with the .382 Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 rally.
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Disclaimer: This market review is for informational purposes only. Futures trading, especially high-leverage products, involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
