Tag Archives: 2600

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 13Apr2018

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The S&P500 Emini Futures have been building a base at 2600 level and they defended it well this week, closing above 2650 this Friday, indicating strength and willingness to go higher. There is clear resistance at 2680, and the clear long trades will start above 2680.

Technical Analysis of S&P500 Futures Daily Chart.

Momentum (14.25) is above zero, indicating an overbought market. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market, and appears to be slowing. Further, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here supports this outlook.A modest downturn is possible here.

Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

RSI (48.70) is in neutral territory. This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone. RSI is somewhat oversold at 48.70. However, this by itself isn’t a strong enough signal. We need to look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

CCI (15.41) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region. CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (15.41) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. The market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high, suggesting closing any long positions here.

Summary: The technical indicators are giving mixed signals at current level. So are bullish and some are bearish. This is logical and along expected lines because the S&P500 index is just above 200 day SMA at 2600 level, and the index has been testing the 2600 level every week. Below 2600 level, many indicators will turn bearish. So far the S&P500 index has been closing above 2600 on weekly basis, which indicates strength.  The S&P500 is building a base at 2600 level, which can enable the next upmove to 2800-2900 level.

[Bonus Trade]: Buy Emini Futures at 2630 for Target 2660 with Stop loss 2610.
Similar trade was done this week, and it can be done again in the coming week.
Our S&P500 Emini Futures Trading strategy is to remain long above 2600. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Update- 11Apr2018

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2653.00
Today’s Range: 2626.00 – 2661.25

The futures have been volatile so far this week, moving up down 30-40 points rapidly, and such moves will break any trading set up. So our decision to wait and watch is proving right as of now.

The futures are back above 2650 currently after an intraday fall to 2626, which is a positive sign. They have been testing 2630-2640 support level everyday this week, and if that testing is completed successfully, we can see an upmove to 2680-2700. Reliable trades will be possible above 2680.

In the last few weeks, the S&P500 has been facing sharp knee jerk selling of 30-40 points suddenly during the day, or after market hours. That is not a regular feature, so we have to wait for some more time for the S&P500 to give a double confirmation on the upmove. The down move is mostly locked out at 2600, which is also the 200 day SMA. Continue reading →

Emini Futures Trading Update- 09Apr2018

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 Emini futures are at 2650.50
Today’s Range: 2609.25 – 2651.25

We have let the futures stabilize over the last 1 week, and the daily volatility has reduced a bit from Mach last week, after repeated successive testing of 2600 level, which is the 200 Day SMA and EMA. So the futures are safe currently, but the set up is not yet strong enough for a general trade. The setup will become strong above 2700, where we can do trades with 20 point stop loss with more reliability. Currently 20 point stop loss can be hit despite getting market direction right.

Traders with 5-10 contracts:
Here’s a new optional trade that can be done with 1-2 contracts.
“Buy at 2630 for Target 2680 with Stop loss 2600”
This trade will trigger if there is a 20 point pullback.
As mentioned earlier, 2600 is the absolute stop loss, and we can stay long above it with a few contracts.

So far all buying after every sharp fall at/below 2600 has rewarded with a reversal to 2650. So it looks like the S&P500 is repairing the damage caused in Feb-March. Upside target of 2850-2900 is intact. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 05Mar2018

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The futures are on the defensive at 2681, being below 20 day SMA, but they have the support of a good defense done at 2650 level just 2 days back. So the current move at 2670-2680 maybe seen as support level testing. The sharp cut will come below 2650, so all long positions should have 2650 as the Stop loss. Long positions can be maintained above 2650 for target 2730. A reliable long trade will come above 2710.

[Bonus Trade] Buy S&P500 Emini Futures at 2680 for Target 2700 with Stop loss 2660.
That’s 20 points gain with 20 point stop loss.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 02Mar2018

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The futures have bounced back from 2650 this week, and closed above 2673, which is the 20 week SMA. There is clear resistance at 2780 level. The futures are testing lower level support levels of 2600-2650 and recovering from those levels, which is a positive sign. The S&P500 Emini Futures have shown support at 2650 and resistance at 2780 – that’s the trading range for coming week. Many technical indicators are saying that this fall is over, and the market will now prepare for the next upmove towards new highs of 2900-2950 in the coming weeks/months. However, 2600-2650 maybe retested and 2500 can also come if 2600 breaks down. Therefore, any major long positions should be created above 2700 with 2680 as stop loss.

[Bonus Trade] Buy S&P500 Emini Futures at 2670 for Target 2710 with Stop loss 2650.
That’s 40 points gain with 20 point stop loss.

S&500 Futures Weekly Chart – Technical Analysis
Date: Friday, March 02, 2018

Moving Average Indicator: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up. In the short term, the market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average. Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar. In the long term, the market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average. Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bullish, we will not classify it as extremely bullish until the following occurs: price goes above the fast moving average, price goes above the slow moving average.

Bollinger Bands Indicator: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band. Volatility appears to be declining, as evidenced by a decreasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market appears oversold, but may continue to become more oversold before reversing. Look for some price strength before taking any bullish positions based on this indicator.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Indicator: CCI (33) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region. CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (33) is bullish, but has begun showing some weakness. Begin looking for an attractive point to liquidate long positions and return to the sidelines.

RSI Indicator: RSI (54) is in neutral territory. This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone. RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 54). However, this by itself isn’t a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bearish here.

MACD Indicator: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory.

Slow Stochastic Indicator: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line. The long term trend is UP. A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought. However, a down move in SlowK for this bar is a little concerning short term.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is meant solely for the understanding of technical analysis of the S&P500 index futures. It is not meant to provide any investment advice.