Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 05Mar2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 3022.00 (in after market trading). The futures went down till 2996 during the day, falling from a high of 3114, which was yesterday’s closing. So today was another 100 point down day, with two 50 points spikes, to take out stop losses of all kinds of traders. That’s why this market is best avoided till it stabilizes.

All this up/down movement is to test the 200 day moving avg, which is currently at 3068. Major resistance on the upside is at 3150, and major support on the downside is at 2850. So there is a large 300 point band, in which the futures can decide their daily direction.

In current market conditions, we can’t do any real trade with less than 30 point stop loss. 20 points are going away rapidly in 5-10 minutes as if they are nothing. And support and resistance levels are also wide apart, as the S&P500 index is trying to navigate this period of high volatility.

[Bonus Trade]
Buy at 3020 for Target 3068 with Stop loss 2990.

Our S&P500 Futures Trading Strategy is to be very careful, and take very few trades after careful observation. The market has not yet stabilized, so our position size must be small, to avoid sudden losses. Thanks.

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 04Mar2020

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The S&P500 futures closed at 3114. It was a big green day, after a big red day. These are all indicative of the market trying to adjust itself. A retest of 200 day moving avg (3068) is sure to come tomorrow, 5th March. Traders should take profits around 3100 and wait for lower levels like 3050 to consider a new trade. 3050 should provide short term support, but 2970 is the real support on the downside.

Major resistance on the upside is at 3150, and major support on the downside is at 2850. So there is a 300 point band, in which the futures can decide their direction.

Our Emini Futures Trading Strategy is to be care careful, and take very few trades after careful observation. The market has not yet stabilized, so our position size must be small, to avoid sudden large loss.

[Bonus Trade]
Sell at 3090 for Target 3040 with Stop loss 3120.

This trade can give 50 points gain for 30 points risk. Unfortunately, in current market conditions, we can’t do any real trade with less than 30 point stop loss. 10-20 points are going away rapidly as if they are nothing. And support and resistance levels are also widely placed, as the S&P500 index is trying to navigate this period of high volatility.

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Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 03Mar2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are currently at 3076.00
Today’s Range (so far): 3024.25 – 3135.50

Every day is a 100+ point day in range these days!
The futures moving up and down 50 points within 30 minutes- very high volatility.

The Optional Trade given yesterday (long from 2950 to 3050) hit its target of 3050 yesterday itself, giving 100 points gain. A few traders also did the previous Optional Trade during pre-market hours (with 50 points Stop loss at 2950) and for them the net gain would be 50 points. For other traders, who took just the Optional Trade during the day time, their gain was 100 points.

So it was worth taking a follow-on trade at 2950 despite getting hit with a Stop loss, because 3050 target was reliable (200 day SMA retest), and it came within a 24 hours of reversal from lower levels. Continue reading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 28Feb2020

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Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures have closed at 2989.25
Today’s Range: 2854.50 – 2995.50

It was another wild day in the market, and 2850 level got tested intraday.
Just last week, the futures hit 3395 (nearly 3400) and to see 2850 level
was almost unreal experience, with 550 points fall in 1 week.

But today’s closing on both S&P500 Emini futures (ES) and Nasdaq Emini
futures (NQ) is encouraging. Its the first time in last 8 days that the
futures showed some strength, and today’s price action by end of the day
was very good. I almost forgot that the futures can move up with strength,
because for last one week, the futures were unable to break out of even
minor intraday negative patterns, which the futures usually take out in
within 1-2 attempts. By end of today, the futures have shown strength.

The immediate upside target for S&P500 futures is 3050-3060, which is the
200 day simple moving average (SMA), but its difficult to create a trade
with a Stop loss, because the futures can fall 50-100 points and then go
up. The only tested support currently is 2850, which is 140 points below,
very far away. And 20-30 point stop loss won’t work in current market.

There are a couple of Optional Trades that I am evaluating.
(a) Buy at 3010 for Target 3060 with Stop loss 2950
(b) Buy at 2970 for Target 3060 with Stop loss 2920

I will try to construct an Optional Trade and share with you by tomorrow
evening, after completing my market analysis. Thanks. Continue reading

Emini Futures Trading Analysis- 27Feb2020

Hello Folks, the S&P500 futures are at 2937.00
The futures have lost 400 points or nearly 12% in last 6 days.
Its like a free fall, which I have not seen in the last 20 years.

This was my mail last Friday, Feb 21, when the futures were at 3339.
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“Just fyi, the major support is currently at 3320, and that’s also our absolute stop loss for any long trade, because below 3320, the uptrend will break, and volatility will spike up, so we will just step aside below 3320.”
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This has played out exactly as expected, but the magnitude of this correction is mind numbing. Nothing in my analysis or trading systems could predict this sharp one-way downmove of 400 points, along with a few 50-80 point pullbacks along the way, to close most of the short positions too. Continue reading