Hello Folks, here is the Performance Summary for Aug 2017. We usually don’t publish trade wise details but August 2017 was particularly unique in how the trading results were different for two different trading styles, so we wanted to share them as an example, which can help all traders learn from our experience, and become better traders.
We have two types of trades.
(a) General Trades – suitable for all traders including those with just 1-2 contracts, and we measure our monthly performance on these trades. Only one trade is on at a give time.
(b) Optional/Tactical Trades – meant for larger traders with 5-10 or more contracts who can buy/sell 1-2 contracts at multiple market levels and exit them with 10-15 points gain. Multiple trades can be on at a give time. These are less reliable set ups, so the chances of getting hit with 10 point stop loss is 50-50 in many cases, but we have learned from experience that such trades can be profitable in a volatile market and also in a market that is reversing after testing supports.
Emini Futures Trading – Aug 2017 (General Trades)
Trade#1: -13 points
Trade#2: -13 points
Trade#3: -10 points
Trade#4: +23 points
Trade#5: -15 points
Trade#6: -12 points
Trade#7: -10 points
Trade#8: +50 points
Total: 0 points
In General Trades, we made 0 points gain. Therefore, we are giving $500 refund to our traders/subscribers. For all the traders who wish to continue with our service, this $500 will be rolled over as the fee for Sep 2017.
Notes: This is the lowest monthly gain this year in 2017. 2470 was the closing price of Aug 31, so we have used that for calculating gains for Trade#8. The months started with stop losses. Trade#1 saw sharp reversal from +15 points gain to -13 points stop loss. It turned back sharply from within 5 points of our target. Based on the review of the trades, the stop losses of Trade#2 and Trade#7 could have been avoided by waiting for 24 hours on the sidelines, which could have got our monthly performance score to +23 points in August, in line with most other months. Despite many years of futures trading experience, volatile months like August are tough to handle with 10-20 point stop losses using just one buying/selling point, as we do in general trades to measure performance.
Risk Management: The advice from George Soros is that uncertainty finds expression in volatility, and as market volatility increases, we have to reduce position size (number of contracts) and increase the risk tolerance (stop loss).
For example, a trader who bought just 2 contracts at 2450, with 2400 as stop loss (both levels given by us in multiple emails), has closed August month with +20 points at 2470. That’s a better outcome than what many traders have for August. That long trade is still on, so the same position will be further profitable at 2480 and 2490.
Therefore, during volatile months, I ask all our larger traders to absorb volatility better by reducing the number of contracts and increasing the stop loss.The outcome is always positive, and we can ride through volatile months with lower stress and more gains.
The performance of Optional/Tactical trades was very good, which is usually the case in volatile months because we can get multiple buying/selling points to benefits from the full range of market moves. These optional trades are used by large traders using 1-2 contracts per optional trade.
Emini Futures Trading – Aug 2017 (Optional Trades)
“Buy Emini Futures at 2463 for Target 2498 with Stop loss 2443.” -20
“Buy Emini Futures at 2434 for Target 2456 with Stop loss 2420.” -14
“Buy Emini Futures at 2438 for Target 2453 with Stop loss 2430.” +15
“Buy Emini Futures at 2463 for Target 2473 with Stop loss 2450.” +10
“Buy Emini Futures at 2468 for Target 2478 with Stop loss 2458.” -10
“Buy Emini Futures at 2463 for Target 2475 with Stop loss 2450.” -13
“Buy Emini Futures at 2456 for Target 2473 with Stop loss 2448.” -08
“Buy Emini Futures at 2428 for Target 2458 with Stop loss 2417.” +30
“Buy Emini Futures at 2428 for Target 2458 with Stop loss 2410.” +30
“Buy Emini Futures at 2432 for Target 2442 with Stop loss 2420.” +10
“Buy Emini Futures at 2422 for Target 2438 with Stop loss 2410.” +10
“Buy Emini Futures at 2422 for Target 2495 with Stop loss 2400.” +48
“Buy Emini Futures at 2425 for Target 2448 with Stop loss 2410.” +23
“Buy Emini Futures at 2430 for Target 2448 with Stop loss 2420.” +18
“Buy Emini Futures at 2428 for Target 2448 with Stop loss 2418.” +20
“Buy Emini Futures at 2446 for Target 2463 with Stop loss 2438.” +17
“Buy Emini Futures at 2455 for Target 2465 with Stop loss 2445.” +10
“Buy Emini Futures at 2465 for Target 2475 with Stop loss 2455.” +10
“Buy Emini Futures at 2468 for Target 2478 with Stop loss 2458.” +10
Total Gain: +196 points (assuming 1 contract per trade)
Notes: There were 19 trades, so the average gain per trade was 10 points, which is the kind of gain we aim for in these trades. There was increased buying at lower level keeping 2420 as the stop, where multiple contracts were long around 2420-2430 and by 2460, most of those contracts were exited. All the trades with buying around/below 2430 gave good gains. Please note these trades can’t be taken standalone. So if a trader decides
to taken an optional trade, he has to be willing to also take the next 3-4 optional trades, which will cover that particular market move, which maybe for example, a 40-50 point down move to test lower levels and reversal after success testing of support levels.
We can expect Sep 2017 to be less volatile than Aug 2017.
That should help our cause. Thanks & Best Wishes.